Forecasters see less active ’06 hurricane season

By Christopher Doering

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States hurricane season
will be slightly less intense this year than first predicted
with nine hurricanes expected to form, government forecasters
said on Tuesday, but they warned the most dangerous part of the
season was still to come.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
said the 2006 season could produce between 12 to 15 named
storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes and three or
four of them being classified as “major” hurricanes that could
threaten the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

“This year’s three named storms may pale in comparison to
the record nine storms that formed through early August 2005,
but conditions will be favorable for above-normal activity for
the rest of this season — so we are not off the hook by any
means,” said NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher.

In May, NOAA predicted this hurricane season would produce
13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of
which four to six could become major hurricanes with winds 111
miles per hour (179 km per hour) or higher.

Other private and university researchers also have cut
their outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season during the last
week.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which ends on November 30,
typically peaks between August 1 and late October.

U.S. government forecasters said wind, upper air pressure
and a warmer-than-normal water temperature at the surface offer
favorable conditions that could still lead to an above-average
hurricane season.

Unlike a year ago, the absence of La Nina, an unusual
cooling of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, has helped
reduce the number of early season storms that developed in June
and July.

“Conditions this year reflect a more typical active season,
with peak activity expected during August-October,” said Gerry
Bell, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
meteorologist.

The 2005 season generated 28 tropical storms, of which 15
became hurricanes. A record four major hurricanes hit the
United States, including Katrina, which devastated New Orleans,
killed 1,300 people and caused $80 billion in damage.

The average hurricane season generates 9.6 named storms,
5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major storms.