Bird Flu May Still Threaten Globe
Posted on: Wednesday, 7 May 2008, 00:35 CDT
The possibility of an influenza pandemic still threatens the globe, according to health experts. The rise of the bird flu in Asian poultry stock in 2003 was only the beginning of the threat.
In the words of Keiji Fukuda, coordinator for the World Health Organization’s Global Influenza Program, "We can't delude ourselves. The threat of a pandemic influenza has not diminished. We need to be prepared for a global outbreak, although," he said, "the timing of such a situation remains speculative.”
During a meeting of nearly 150 health experts, as well as representatives from WHO and other agencies, Fukuda and others spoke towards updating the preparedness plan. Less than 200 countries have plans to counter a future outbreak, and some of these only have a sheet of paper which acknowledges the risk of an occurrence.
The H5N1 avian flu virus affected Asian, African, and European flocks, and experts are claiming that it could mutate into a form that passes from person to person. According to WHO, 241 people have died due to bird flu infections since 2003, and there have been 382 known cases. These numbers could skyrocket if the virus becomes mutated and translates between humans
Dr. Supamit Chunsuttiwat, a disease control expert at Thailand’s health ministry agrees that the risk of pandemic is expanding. He stated, “We are concerned that the spread through migratory birds hasn't stopped. Once the virus is established in birds, it is difficult to get rid of the virus and the risk (to humans) remains unless countries develop good control of transmission in birds.”
WHO has concerned itself with updating its preparedness plan to include experience with human cases of bird flu, stronger international cooperation, and progress in research. Fukuda claims it is imperative that all societal levels are involved in preparations so that an information database becomes common knowledge. "If somebody is sick in the family for example and it's difficult to get to hospital, they need to know what sort of advice might be available," Fukuda declared.
He went on to explain that today there is a much greater understanding of the virus and its epidemiology, and that antivirals have been stockpiled since 2005 in case of a pandemic. Steps have also been taken to begin development of a pandemic vaccine.
Even though it might prove difficult, experience and research over the past few years have led experts to believe that they might be capable of stopping a pandemic before it blows out of proportion. "A few years ago it would not have been possible to talk about pandemic vaccines," Fukuda said. "All of a sudden we have new things to work with." Some of these vaccines, which are being worked on by 16 different companies, are very near regulatory approval; however large-scale commercial production would not begin until a pandemic virus actually emerged due to the necessity of the vaccine matching the strain in order to be effective.
International health regulations are being considered in WHO’s drafting of their preparedness plan. The agreement should help spread the word about a pandemic outbreak as soon as possible after one occurs. Countries will be required to report new disease threats, such as flu subtypes. They will also allow WHO to act on credible information rather than waiting for the government’s “go”. Countries are also putting measures into place to curb the spread of a pandemic. Assuring medical center access and airport control will assist to isolate sick people.
In Fukuda’s words, “The risk is as great as it has ever been. We hope to send out a very clear message that this effort needs to continue and the threat has not gone away."
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On the Net:
World Health Organization’s Global Influenza Program
Source: redOrbit Staff and Wire Reports
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