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High Growth Reported for the Commercial and Pipeline Insight: Vaccines for Adults and the Elderly – New Blockbuster Opportunities Ahead

August 5, 2008

Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report related to the Pharmaceutical industry industry is available in its catalogue.

Commercial and Pipeline Insight: Vaccines for Adults and the Elderly – New blockbuster opportunities ahead

http://www.reportlinker.com/p091765/Commercial-and-Pipeline-Insight-Vaccines-for-Adults-and-the-Elderly—New-blockbuster-opportunities-ahead.html

Introduction

Vaccines have re-emerged as successful revenue generators for Big Pharma, with adults and the elderly now increasingly coming into focus as the next big opportunity in this sector. An aging population, rising disease awareness and new technologies to overcome the scientific hurdles linked to the weakened immune response in the elderly are all contributing factors.

Scope

-Assessment of pneumococcal and zoster disease incidence, in-depth analysis of existing vaccines and key pipeline compounds

-Review of current and expected future immunization guidelines as well as existing and forecast immunization rates

-10-year sales forecast on a population basis for Zostavax, Prevnar 13 and Pneumovax-23

-Overview of current booster vaccine recommendations and commercial landscape with analysis of future market drivers

Highlights

Following the great success of Wyeth’s heptavalent pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar in the infant sector, Datamonitor believes that Prevnar 13 could achieve blockbuster status in adults and elderly alone, if a superior efficacy compared to Pneumovax 23 is confirmed in ongoing clinical trials.

Merck & Co’s Zostavax is the only available vaccine for the prevention of shingles and will continue to enjoy a monopoly in this promising market due to a lack of pipeline competitors. Datamonitor predicts peak sales between $1.5 and $2 billion.

Sanofi Pasteur and GSK are the leading players in the booster vaccines market. Overall, Datamonitor predicts significant growth potential in this sector, based on both geographic expansion of existing booster indications as well as the potential introduction of additional booster vaccinations for new indications.

Reasons to Purchase

-Size the available market opportunities and identify the unmet medical needs when immunizing an elderly patient population

-Gain insight into key opinion leaders’ thinking on vaccines for the elderly

-Understand and identify the key challenges to achieving a better penetration of the next big opportunity in the vaccine area

 ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2 About the Infectious Diseases analysis team 2 CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 Objective of the analysis 3 Scope of the analysis 3 Datamonitor insight into the vaccines market for adults and elderly 4 Contributing experts 5 Related reports 6 Upcoming related reports 6 CHAPTER 2 VACCINES FOR ADULTS AND ELDERLY - MARKET OVERVIEW 8 Adult vaccines - the next blockbusters? 8 Currently recommended vaccines 9 Routine vaccinations 10 Booster vaccinations for adults and elderly 11 Vaccines for catch-up and high-risk populations 11 Market influencers 12 The increasing age of the population is a key driver for adult vaccination 13 Challenges are associated with the lack of homogeneity in the immune status of adults and elderly 14 New technologies better suited to vaccine design for the elderly are emerging 15 It will be challenging to achieve high turn-out rates for vaccination among adults and elderly 17 Increasing awareness of vaccine-preventable diseases will result in greater interest in vaccination 19 A private market could emerge for adult vaccines 20 Strategies for maximum market penetration 21 CHAPTER 3 PNEUMOCOCCAL VACCINATION IN ADULTS AND ELDERLY 23 Summary 23 Disease background 23 Epidemiology 25 Invasive pneumococcal disease is associated with high incidence and death rates 25 The elderly are at high risk of infection and show highest death rates associated with invasive pneumococcal disease 26 The introduction of childhood vaccination with Prevnar has also reduced the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease caused by vaccine serotypes in the elderly 29 Recommendations 32 Coverage 34 Comparator therapy: Pneumovax 23 (Merck & Co/Sanofi Aventis) 37 Unmet needs 41 Pipeline vaccines 43 Prevnar 13 (Wyeth) 44 Vaccine profile 44 Clinical trial data 45 Marketing factors 53 Satisfaction of unmet needs 53 Potential role in boosting 55 Datamonitor vaccine assessment summary 58 GlaxoSmithKline's pneumococcal conjugate candidates 61 Intercell's pneumococcal vaccine 64 Market opportunity and forecast 65 Pneumococcal vaccination in elderly and adults has a significant commercial potential 65 Assumptions made for forecasting the pneumococcal vaccines market 66 Country forecasts 68 Six major markets 68 US 72 5EU 75 France 77 Germany 79 Italy 81 Spain 84 UK 86 CHAPTER 4 ZOSTER VACCINES 88 Summary 88 Disease background 88 Course of disease - shingles occurs upon reactivation of varicella zoster virus 88 Post-herpetic neuralgia is the most concerning complication of shingles 90 Epidemiology 91 In the western major markets, around 2 million people suffer from herpes zoster infections every year 91 So far, there is no clear evidence of an increase in shingles incidence following routine infant varicella vaccination; however, more data are needed 93 Vaccination recommendations 95 Cost-efficacy considerations 97 Comparator therapy: Zostavax (Merck & Co) 99 Vaccine profile 99 Efficacy 100 Safety 103 Strengths and weaknesses 103 Unmet needs 104 Pipeline vaccines 105 Market opportunity and forecast 106 Historical sales performance 106 Assumptions made for forecasting the zoster vaccines market 108 Country forecasts 109 Six major markets 109 US 111 5EU 113 France 114 Germany 115 Italy 116 Spain 119 UK 120 CHAPTER 5 BOOSTER VACCINES 122 Summary 122 Current situation 123 Recommended vaccines 123 Currently marketed vaccines 125 Future outlook 127 Existing booster indications may be rolled out to additional countries 128 New indications are likely to be added to the booster portfolio 130 BIBLIOGRAPHY 132 Literature 132 APPENDIX A 140 Forecasts 140 Forecast methodology 140 Datamonitor forecast methodology 140 Datamonitor's patient-based forecasting model 141 Limitations of the patient-based forecasting model 143 APPENDIX B - MARKET FORECAST DATA 144 Six major markets 144 US 145 5EU 146 France 147 Germany 148 Italy 149 Spain 150 UK 151 APPENDIX C 152 Contributing experts 152 Report methodology 152 About Datamonitor 152 About Datamonitor Healthcare 153 About the Infectious Diseases analysis team 154 Key therapy team members 155 Holger Rovini, Head of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases 155 Hedwig Kresse, Senior Analyst, Infectious Diseases 155 Disclaimer 156 List of Tables  Table 1: Routine and booster immunizations for adults and elderly in the seven major markets, 2008 9 Table 2: Vaccination recommended for adults and elderly as catch-up or for risk groups only in the seven major markets, 2008 10 Table 3: Diseases linked to S. pneumoniae 24 Table 4: Recommendations for pneumococcal revaccination in adults and elderly in the seven major markets, 2008 34 Table 5: Pneumovax 23: key facts 37 Table 6: Prevnar 13 - Vaccine overview 44 Table 7: Prevnar 13 - Late-stage safety and efficacy trials in adults and elderly naive to pneumococcal vaccination 47 Table 8: Prevnar 13 - Late-stage re-vaccination trials 50 Table 9: Prevnar 13 - Late-stage trials for simultaneous vaccination with Prevnar 13 and trivalent influenza vaccine 52 Table 10: GlaxoSmithKline pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidates - clinical trials in adults/elderly, 2008 62 Table 11: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines sales in adults and elderly summary - six major markets, 2007-2017 71 Table 12: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary - US, 2007-2017 74 Table 13: Forecast pneumococcal vaccine sales in adults and elderly summary - 5EU, 2007-2017 76 Table 14: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary - France, 2007-2017 78 Table 15: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary - Germany, 2007-2017 81 Table 16: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary - Italy, 2007-2017 83 Table 17: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly - summary - Spain, 2007-2017 85 Table 18: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly summary - UK, 2007-2017 87 Table 19: Herpes zoster incidence in the US and 5EU 92 Table 20: Vaccination recommendations regarding varicella and herpes zoster in the seven major markets, 2006 97 Table 21: Zostavax: key facts 100 Table 22: Zoster vaccines - pipeline 105 Table 23: Zostavax market forecast - six major markets, 2007-2017 111 Table 24: Zostavax market forecast - US, 2007-2017 113 Table 25: Zostavax market forecast - 5EU, 2007-2017 114 Table 26: Zostavax market forecast - France, 2007-2017 115 Table 27: Zostavax market forecast - Germany, 2007-2017 116 Table 28: Zostavax market forecast - Italy, 2007-2017 119 Table 29: Zostavax market forecast - Spain, 2007-2017 120 Table 30: Zostavax market forecast - UK, 2007-2017 122 Table 31: Adolescent booster recommendations, seven major markets, 2008 124 Table 32: Adult booster recommendations, seven major markets, 2008 124 Table 33: Key marketed booster vaccines for adults and adolescents; 7MM, 2008 125 Table 34: Vaccine profiles for Adacel and Boostrix 127 Table 35: Six major markets pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017 144 Table 36: US pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017 145 Table 37: 5EU pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017 146 Table 38: France pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts,2007-2017 147 Table 39: Germany pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017 148 Table 40: Italy pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017 149 Table 41: Spain pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017 150 Table 42: UK pneumococcal and zoster vaccine sales ($m) forecasts, 2007-2017 151 List of Figures  Figure 1: Market growth cycle for vaccines 12 Figure 2: Population aged 65 years and older in the seven major markets, 1998-2018 13 Figure 3: Strategies for maximum market penetration of the adult vaccination market 22 Figure 4: Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in the elderly in the seven major markets, 2007 25 Figure 5: Incidence of disease and case-fatality rate (CFR) of invasive pneumococcal disease by age groups in Scotland, 1999-2001 27 Figure 6: Pneumococcal disease - incidence and mortality of invasive pneumococcal disease in the US, 2004 28 Figure 7: Impact of Prevnar on incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in children and elderly, in the US, 1998/99 versus 2003 29 Figure 8: Case and death rates linked to invasive pneumococcal disease caused by all serotypes of S. pneumoniae by age group, in the US, 1999-2006 31 Figure 9: Recommendations for adult pneumococcal vaccination in the seven major markets, 2008 33 Figure 10: Pneumococcal vaccination coverage by age group in the US, 1997-2006 35 Figure 11: Pneumovax 23 - strengths and weaknesses 38 Figure 12: Unmet needs in pneumococcal vaccination 41 Figure 13: Prevnar 13 - study design of re-vaccination trials 48 Figure 14: Pneumococcal booster strategies 56 Figure 15: Prevnar 13 - SWOT analysis 58 Figure 16: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by country - six major markets, 2007-2017 69 Figure 17: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - six major markets, 2007-2017 70 Figure 18: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - six major markets, 2007-2017 71 Figure 19: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - US, 2007-2017 73 Figure 20: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - US, 2007-2017 74 Figure 21: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - 5EU, 2007-2017 75 Figure 22: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - 5EU, 2007-2017 76 Figure 23: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - France, 2007-2017 77 Figure 24: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - France, 2007-2017 78 Figure 25: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - Germany, 2007-2017 80 Figure 26: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - Germany, 2007-2017 80 Figure 27: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - Italy, 2007-2017 82 Figure 28: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - Italy, 2007-2017 83 Figure 29: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - Spain, 2007-2017 84 Figure 30: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - Spain, 2007-2017 85 Figure 31: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by population group - UK, 2007-2017 86 Figure 32: Forecast pneumococcal vaccines in adults and elderly by brand - UK, 2007-2017 87 Figure 33: Varicella zoster virus infection - disease progression 89 Figure 34: Herpes zoster incidence by age group in Madrid, Spain, 1997-2004 93 Figure 35: Varicella and herpes zoster incidence in various age groups in the US, 1992-2002 94 Figure 36: Zostavax - efficacy in preventing herpes zoster infection by age group 101 Figure 37: Zostavax - efficacy in preventing post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) in patients who developed herpes zoster infection by age group 102 Figure 38: Zostavax - duration of efficacy for preventing herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) following vaccination 103 Figure 39: Zostavax - sales 2006-Q1 2008 107 Figure 40: Zostavax market forecast by country - six major markets, 2007-2017 110 Figure 41: Zostavax market forecast - six major markets, 2007-2017 111 Figure 42: Zostavax market forecast - US, 2007-2017 112 Figure 43: Zostavax market forecast - 5EU, 2007-2017 114 Figure 44: Zostavax market forecast - France, 2007-2017 115 Figure 45: Zostavax market forecast - Germany, 2007-2017 116 Figure 46: Zostavax market forecast - Italy, 2007-2017 118 Figure 47: Zostavax market forecast - Spain, 2007-2017 120 Figure 48: Zostavax market forecast - UK, 2007-2017 122 Figure 49: Sanofi Pasteur - booster vaccine sales, 2002-07 126 Figure 50: Pertussis notifications in England and Wales for over 5 year-olds, 1999-2007 129 Figure 51: Datamonitor's patient-based vaccine forecasting model - influence factors 142 

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Commercial and Pipeline Insight: Vaccines for Adults and the Elderly – New blockbuster opportunities ahead

http://www.reportlinker.com/p091765/Commercial-and-Pipeline-Insight-Vaccines-for-Adults-and-the-Elderly—New-blockbuster-opportunities-ahead.html

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