Maplecroft Flu Pandemic Maps Reveal Countries Most at Risk

LONDON, April 30 /PRNewswire/ — With swine flu topping the agenda of
business around the world, global risks specialist, Maplecroft has released
three new maps and indices revealing the countries most at risk from an
influenza pandemic.

The Influenza Pandemic Risk Index (IPRI) consists of three categories:
Risk of Emergence, Risk of Spread and Capacity to Contain. Each index
generates a list of countries most at risk and that require a tailored policy
response on the part of government and business. Maplecroft’s research
focuses on global risks to business.

The map of Risk of Spread shows the United Kingdom most at risk to the
spread of an influenza pandemic, ranking number 1 out of 213 countries. The
Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Russia, Canada and Japan are also categorised as
extreme risk because of their high population density, urbanisation and busy
airports.

Even though the UK and other developed Western nations are at extreme
risk of spread, their capacity to contain influenza pandemics ranks low risk.
Large stockpiling of drugs and a sophisticated health infrastructure, which
the Capacity to Contain index captures, means they have very effective
measures with which to fight human influenza.

Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as the area least able to contain pandemic
influenza with 27 out of the 30 most extreme risk countries. The capacity of
a country to contain the spread of human influenza depends on factors of
wealth, health infrastructure, education resources, information and
communication networks, and governance.

The Risk of Emergence index unsurprisingly categorises Mexico as extreme
risk and ranks the country as fourth most at risk, whilst Vietnam, China and
Bangladesh top the table.

Countries most prone to risk of emergence of swine or avian flu in humans
are poorer countries that have dense rural populations, with living quarters
in close proximity to livestock. This is compounded by poor hygiene, lack of
access to clean water and sanitation and poor public health education.

“It is important to see a newly emerging set of global risks – whether
pandemics, conflict and terrorism, resource security including water stress,
or climate change as inter-related,” states Alyson Warhurst Chair of Strategy
and International Development at Warwick Business School and one of the
founding directors of Maplecroft. “Climate change is causing drought and
flooding which in turn leads to crop failures and the destruction of
livelihoods which in turn lead to poverty and the conditions that we see
increase vulnerability to pandemic flu.”

IPRI sources include: WHO, UNESCO, FAO, World Organisation for Animal
Health, World Bank, Environmental Research Group Oxford, World Resources
Institute and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU).

For free access to the three IPRI maps and risk categories:
http://www.global-risks.com/maps/featured_map/

Maplecroft specialises in the analysis and creative visualisation of
global risks. Our comprehensive portfolio of indicators, reports and
interactive GIS maps provide clients with innovative ways to manage and
mitigate risk. These tools assess vulnerability to over 100 global risks and
allow major international bodies to formulate strategy, control risk
exposure, secure industry leadership and work towards a sustainable future.

Web: http://www.global-risks.com

SOURCE Maplecroft