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London Study Maintains Flu Has Full Pandemic Potential

Posted on: Tuesday, 12 May 2009, 06:30 CDT

Health experts say that the new H1N1 swine flu possesses “full pandemic potential” and could infect as much as one third of the world’s population if it goes global – a contingency that officials project will occur in the next six to nine months.

A team of scientists at Imperial College London have studied the virus’ infection patterns in Mexico and have postulated that as many as one in three people who come in contact with the virus could become infected. 

The London-based researchers collaborated with the WHO as well as public health agencies in Mexico to analyze all data available on the virus through the end of April.  They are also factoring in information on the international spread of the virus as well as its cross-continental genetic diversity

“This virus really does have full pandemic potential,” said Professor Neil Ferguson, the group’s lead researcher and a member of the WHO’s emergency swine flu committee.

The global number of confirmed swine flu cases to-date is 5,251 and are spread across some 30 countries as dispersed as Canada, Israel and New Zealand.  The World Health Organization has confirmed 61 flu-related deaths, the vast majority of which occurred in Mexico.

Ferguson’s team has declined to venture estimates of the potential death toll that could follow a global pandemic, saying that it was still too early to predict whether the virus will become more innocuous or lethal as time progresses.  They did however suggest that the swine flu could have a 0.4% fatality rate, killing four people for every 1,000 cases of infection.

According to his very rough initial analysis, Ferguson says that in terms of potential for fatality the H1N1 virus is comparable to the virus behind the 1957 outbreak that killed some 2 million people worldwide.

He added that the virus’ full impact will not be measurable until the annual flu season returns in the autumn and winter of this year, at which point he suggests the world could see a “really major epidemic” in the northern hemisphere.

“[The virus] is likely to spread around the world in the next to nine months and when it does so it will affect about one-third of the world’s population,” Professor Ferguson told the BBC program Radio 4 Today.

“To put that into context, normal seasonal flu every year probably affects around 10 percent of the world’s population every year, so we are heading for a flu season which is perhaps three times worse than usual – not allowing for whether this virus is more severe than normal seasonal flu viruses,” he explained.

Ferguson urges that his group’s findings should prompt action by governments and international health agencies to quickly escalate vaccine production for the coming year.

"We really need to be prepared, particularly for the autumn. At the moment, the virus is not spreading fast in the northern hemisphere, because we are outside the normal flu season, but come autumn it is likely to cause a really major epidemic,” he cautioned.

"One of the key decisions which has to be made this week by the world community is how much do we switch over current vaccine production for seasonal flu to make a vaccine against this particular virus? I think those decisions need to be made quickly."

Ferguson’s dire warnings come amidst growing public agitation – expressed in internet blogs, online social networks and newspapers – that governments, media outlets and health agencies have greatly exaggerated the threat posed by the swine flu.
 
A Gallup poll conducted on May 3 showed that less than 20 percent of Americans are afraid of contracting the swine flu, down from 25 percent the previous week.

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On the Net:

• WHO
• CDC
• Imperial College London

Source: redOrbit Staff & Wire Reports

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