WHO On Brink Of Declaring Flu Pandemic
The World Health Organization (WHO) is on the brink of declaring the first influenza pandemic since 1968, but wants to make sure countries are properly prepared to avert a panic, said WHO assistant director-general Keiji Fukuda on Tuesday.
Fukuda said he was concerned at the continued spread of the new H1N1 strain. The outbreak, which emerged in April in North America, has since spread throughout the world, including more than 1,000 cases in Australia.
A confirmed community spread in a second region beyond North America would prompt a move from phase 5 to phase 6, reflecting the geographic spread of the virus and signifying a full-blown pandemic. Phase 6 is the highest level of the WHO’s pandemic scale.
"The situation has really evolved a lot over the past several days. We are getting really very close to knowing that we are in a pandemic situation, or I think, declaring that we are in a pandemic situation," Fukuda said during a teleconference.
"It does not mean that the severity of the situation has increased or that people are getting seriously sick at higher numbers or higher rates than they are right now," he added.
A WHO declaration of a H1N1 pandemic involves more than merely making an announcement, Fukuda explained. The agency must also ensure the world is able to manage such a situation, which includes dealing with any public reaction.
"One of the critical issues is that we do not want people to ‘over-panic’ if they hear that we are in a pandemic situation. That they understand, for example, that the current assessment of the situation is that this is a moderate level," said Fukuda.
The WHO and its 193 member states are developing vaccines and stockpiling supplies of anti-viral drugs in order to prepare for a possible pandemic, he added.
The H1N1 virus has infected over 26,500 people in 73 countries, resulting in 140 deaths. Mexico has been the hardest hit nation, with more than 100 fatalities. Many of those infected include otherwise healthy young people.
Fukuda said a serious concern is that hospitals could be overwhelmed by people seeking treatment when they did not really need it, leaving others requiring emergency help neglected.
"In earlier pandemics, in earlier outbreaks, we have often seen that people who are in the category of being worried but who are not particularly sick, have overrun hospitals," he added.
Since the H1N1 outbreak began, many people have stopped eating pork altogether.  Trade bans have been imposed on meats and pigs have been culled in some countries, while other nations have considered closing their borders.
"These are the kinds of potential adverse effects that you can have if you go out without making sure people understand the situation as well as possible," said Fukuda.
The new H1N1 virus is a combination of swine, human and avian viruses. Although many refer to it as “swine flu”, experts say that name is misleading, and emphasize that there is no risk from eating pork.
The speed and volume of international travel has made the world more vulnerable to the adverse effects of a flu pandemic. However, in many ways we are better prepared than we were during the last pandemic in 1968, when the H3N2 virus known as the Hong Kong flu caused an estimated 1-4 million deaths.
Fukuda said the WHO would not name the new H1N1 virus after a specific animal or country in order to avoid creating a stigma.
Fukuda said the Canadian Inuits had suffered disproportionately during the current H1N1 outbreak, often requiring hospitalization.
It is unclear whether this was due to higher prevalence of underlying disease, poverty or genetics.
"Inuit populations were very severely hit in some of the earlier pandemics. This is why these reports raise such concerns to us," he said.
The WHO’s H1N1 flu updates can be viewed at http://www.who.int/en/.
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