According to the head of the World Health Organization on Tuesday, the H1N1 flu pandemic may not be conquered until 2011, and continued attention to the virus will be need to be regarded as it still can mutate.
WHO Director Margaret Chan also warned that although countries have raised their defenses against the first flu pandemic in more than 40 years, they remain unprepared for mass outbreaks of the even deadlier bird flu virus. “It is still premature and too early for us to say we have come to an end of the pandemic influenza worldwide.” Chan stated in a year-end news conference. It would be wise to “continue to monitor the evolution of this pandemic for the next six to 12 months,” she added.
The worst of the swine flu outbreak is over in the United States, Canada, Britain and some other countries in the northern hemisphere, but there is still widespread flu activity in Egypt, India and elsewhere, Chan said. Many more people could become sick with H1N1 this winter even though it has peaked in North America and Europe. So far, over 11,000 people are known to have died from the virus since the outbreak began in April. Between 250,000 and 500,000 people die from regular flu each year.
H1N1 has now spread to more than 200 countries, and the death toll could rise, especially in under-developed countries where it could spread like wildfire. Since swine flu was declared a pandemic back in June, the U.N. health agency has described the outbreak as “moderate.” It could take more than two years to tally the true death toll that may occur from this outbreak.
Most people, however, that contract this particular strain of the swine flu, have recovered without any special treatment. Although officials are seeing some severe cases in people under the age of 65 that are usually not at high risk during regular flu seasons. Those with underlying health problems, young people, and pregnant women are at highest risks for medical treatment from swine flu.
The WHO has warned that the virus could have a major impact in countries across Africa where high numbers of people have health issues such as malnutrition, AIDS, and malaria. Also, flu viruses are notoriously unpredictable and can mutate into severe forms that are more and more harmful.
Some drug companies and rich countries have vowed to donate 190 million doses of the H1N1 vaccine to areas of 90 developing countries around the world. The WHO plans to start distributing the first doses in Azerbaijan and Mongolia in early January, to be followed by Afghanistan, according to Chan.
There has been a recent recall on some flu vaccines due to a weak formula. The weak vaccines posed no health risk, Chan said. With the current financial crisis, and weak health systems in many countries, Chan noted that “the fact that the long overdue influenza pandemic is so moderate in its impact is probably the best health news of the decade.”
Although, now with the new outbreak of bird flu cases reported in poultry in Egypt, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, there is a risk that bird flu and swine flu may hybridize into a new strain of super-virus. Scientists fear that bird flu, which remains hard for people to catch but kills about 60 percent of those infected, could combine with the current swine flu virus, which spreads easily among people but kills a low percentage.
Chan said that although countries are now better prepared to cope with global disease and virus outbreaks than they were just a few years ago, the swine flu pandemic has shown that there remain numerous gaps in healthcare systems in many countries. She said she hopes the world can avoid a pandemic triggered by the avian flu virus, which was more toxic and deadlier than swine flu. “The world is not ready for a pandemic caused by H5N1,” Chan said, referring to the scientific name of bird flu.
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