WHO Panel Says H1NI Pandemic Hasn’t Peaked Yet
The World Health Organization announced today that health experts would review the status of the H1N1 pandemic in a few weeks to decide whether it has peaked, Reuters reported.
However, most say it is already clear that this year’s outbreak is less severe than previous outbreaks.
On Tuesday, the WHO’s emergency committee decided that it was premature to declare the pandemic was past its worst.
The WHO Panel decided there were too many uncertainties about how the pandemic was behaving, even if it appeared to be subsiding in North America and Europe.
But rising levels of infection in West Africa and the risk posed by the winter months in the southern hemisphere were the dominating concerns of the committee, according to Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the WHO’s top influenza expert.
"We have some reason to be concerned about what may develop as half of the world goes into its winter months," Fukuda said.
Fukuda warned that the United Nations health agency had confirmed reports of rising infection in Senegal and Mauritania, and was checking to see whether the flu virus was spreading in other parts of West Africa.
He urged people and governments not to let their guard down even though the current swine flu outbreak has not been as harsh as pandemics of the past.
"This pandemic appears to be on the less severe side of the spectrum of pandemics that we have seen in the 20th century," he said.
Some 16,226 deaths attributable to the H1N1 pandemic virus have been confirmed, but the real death toll — which will take a year or two to ascertain — will be much higher, as many victims have so far not been diagnosed with the flu strain.
Fukuda said people should continue to seek vaccination against the pandemic, which is dangerous for young adults, especially those with chronic health conditions, and pregnant women, in contrast to seasonal strains where the elderly are vulnerable.
He added that over 300 million people have now been vaccinated against pandemic influenza, and the shots have proved 70-75 percent effective.
The WHO emergency committee decided that the pandemic has entered a "post-peak" phase and will indicate to governments and health authorities that the virus, while still a global pandemic, is in a transition to a more normal state of affairs where it circulates as seasonal influenza.
WHO data showed that nearly 16,000 people have died worldwide from the new A(H1N1) strain after it spread into 212 countries and overseas territories since it was uncovered in Mexico and the United States in April 2009.
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