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Humira to Assume Lipitor’s Crown as Pfizer Feels the Heat From Sanofi and Novartis

June 28, 2011

LONDON, June 28, 2011 /PRNewswire/ –

Rheumatoid arthritis treatment Humira will assume Lipitor’s crown as the
world’s biggest selling drug, while Pfizer will cling on to its ranking as
the biggest seller of prescription medicines through to 2016, according to
the World Preview 2016 (second edition) report published today by
EvaluatePharma, the premier provider of pharma and biotech analysis.

Lipitor’s patent expiry this year precipitates the steepest decline in
the industry’s patent cliff, with $139bn predicted to be lost from sales of
branded drugs between 2011 and 2016, equal to 20% of the global
pharmaceutical market last year. Meanwhile the race for the pharmaceutical
sales top spot is going to be close, with Sanofi and Novartis breathing down
Pfizer’s neck – all three companies are expected to have prescription drug
sales in the region of $50bn by 2016, the EvaluatePharma report shows.

Clinging on

Despite predictions that sales of its prescription drugs are set to
decline from $54.1bn last year to $51.2bn by 2016, Pfizer is expected to
just cling on to the industry’s top spot – but Sanofi and Novartis are
catching up fast.

Sanofi’s $20bn acquisition of Genzyme, predicted growth in emerging
markets and its vaccines business have significantly boosted the outlook for
the French group’s pharmaceutical revenues – forecast sales in 2016 of
$50.2bn are $11.2bn higher than in the same analysis conducted in April
2010.

Prospects for Novartis’ pharmaceutical business have been boosted by key
regulatory approvals for oral MS pill Gilenya and Tasigna, a follow-on
product to leukaemia blockbuster Glivec.

                                                                         Change
                                                                           in
                                                                  WW     Market
           WW Prescription (Rx)     WW Annual Sales   2016 vs.  Market    Rank
                  Sales                  ($bn)        Apr-2010   Share   (10-16)
                                              Growth
         Rank  Company             2010 2016 (10-16)           2010 2016
          1    Pfizer              54.1 51.2   -1%      +4.0   8.0% 6.0%    -
          2    Sanofi              36.6 50.2   +5%     +11.2   5.4% 5.9%   +2
          3    Novartis            41.4 49.7   +3%      +2.6   6.1% 5.8%   -1
          4    GlaxoSmithKline     35.6 45.0   +4%      +6.3   5.3% 5.3%   +2
                                                        -0.3
          5    Roche               35.6 43.6   +3%             5.3% 5.1%    -
                                                        -4.0
          6    Merck & Co          40.4 42.3   +1%             6.0% 5.0%   -3
          7    AstraZeneca         32.1 27.0   -3%      +4.9   4.7% 3.2%    -
                                                        -1.7
          8    Abbott Laboratories 19.9 24.4   +3%             2.9% 2.9%   +2
          9    Teva Pharmaceutical 14.5 23.9   +9%      +3.1   2.1% 2.8%   +4
                                                        -2.9
          10   Johnson & Johnson   20.7 21.9   +1%             3.1% 2.6%   -1

Once again the fastest growing company in the top ten in terms of
prescription revenues is expected to be Israeli company Teva. The generics
firm is rapidly becoming a big pharma player through an aggressive M&A
strategy which increasingly spans the industry spectrum from generics to
innovative technologies. The EvaluatePharma report shows that Teva increased
its share of the global generics market to 18% in 2010 and the company is
well placed to benefit the most from the blockbuster patent cliff.

In contrast, the outlook for Merck & Co has been tempered somewhat, hit
hardest by the phase III failure of novel anti-coagulant, vorapaxar. A year
ago Merck was seen as Pfizer’s closest rival for the top spot in 2016, but
the company now sits outside the top five.

Humira reigns supreme

Estimated global sales of Lipitor of $10.6bn means 2011 will be the last
year the cholesterol-lowering agent tops the rankings, with Humira expected
to be the biggest selling medicine in 2012 with sales of $8.7bn. Humira is
forecast to grow 5% annually to reach $9.7bn by 2016, almost $2bn higher
than its nearest challenger, Roche’s Avastin. The cancer antibody was once
regarded as Lipitor’s heir apparent before a number of clinical and
regulatory setbacks in the last 18 months.

Biotech products targeting cancer and rheumatic disorders are seen
accounting for six of the top ten products in 2016. Of the three small
molecule drugs, AstraZeneca’s cholesterol drug Crestor has been boosted by a
successful legal defence of its patent until 2016. A receding generic threat
in the US is benefitting Glaxo’s respiratory medicine Advair, while Merck &
Co’s Januvia franchise goes from strength to strength and is expected to
dominate the non-insulin market for diabetes agents.

                                                                           2016
                                                         WW Product     Change vs
           Top Ten Selling Products in 2016              Sales ($bn)      Apr-10
                                                                           %
        Rank Product  Company(s)  Target    Technology   2010 2016 Growth
                                            Biotech
                      Abbott +              (monoclonal
         1 Humira   Eisai       Arthritis antibody)    6.7  9.7  +5%   -405   -4%
                                          Biotech
                                          (monoclonal
         2 Avastin  Roche       Cancer    antibody)    6.2  7.8  +3%   -1078 -12%
                                          Biotech
                    Roche +               (monoclonal
         3 Rituxan  Biogen Idec Cancer    antibody)    6.1  7.7  +3%   +897  +13%
                    AstraZeneca           Conventional
                    + Shionogi            (small
         4 Crestor  + Chiesi    Cholest-  molecule)    6.1  7.5  +3%   +1242 +20%
                    Amgen +     erol      Biotech
                    Pfizer +              (recombinant
         5 Enbrel   Takeda      Arthritis product)     7.3  7.2  -0%   -119   -2%
                    GSK +                 Conventional
           Seretide Almirall +  Asthma /  (small
         6 / Advair Faes        COPD      molecule)    8.1  7.0  -2%   +1768 +34%
                                          Conventional
           Januvia /Merck + Ono           (small
         7 Janumet  + Almirall  Diabetes  molecule)    3.5  6.8  +10%  +791  +13%
                                          Biotech
                                          (monoclonal
         8 HerceptinRoche       Cancer    antibody)    5.2  6.5  +3%   +300   +5%
                    J&J + Merck
                    +                     Biotech
                    Mitsubishi            (monoclonal
         9 Remicade Tanabe      Arthritis antibody)    6.5  6.1  -1%   +380   +7%
                                          Biotech
           Prevnar              Pneumoc-  (bioengineered
         10 13      Pfizer      occal     vaccine)     2.4  5.8  +13%  +4081 +237%
                                   diseas

Commenting on the launch of the report, Jonathan de Pass, founder and
chief executive of EvaluatePharma, said: “Our revised outlook for 2016 shows
how competitive the landscape will be for the big pharma players – key
pipeline successes or failures, or the outcome of courtroom patent battles,
could dramatically change the current picture”.

“Our World Preview report provides valuable insight into life beyond the
patent cliff and who the likely winners and losers will be”.

EvaluatePharma launched the report today at BIO 2011 in Washington DC,
United States.

More information on EvaluatePharma’s World Preview 2016, which assesses
forecasted trends in prescription drug sales, R&D spend, therapy area growth
and the performance of marketed and pipeline products, can be found at
EvaluatePharma’s stand at BIO 2011 (3045) or via EvaluatePharma’s website

http://www.evaluatepharma.com

About EvaluatePharma (R) – http://www.evaluatepharma.com

Set up in 1996 by former top pharma analyst Dr. Jonathan de Pass,
EvaluatePharma(R) is the premier source for pharma and biotech analysis.

EvaluatePharma was the first company to supply reliable consensus
forecasts of global drug sales and now provides standardised worldwide
financial and forecast models with consensus product forecasts to 2016, data
on R&D pipelines, licensing deals, patent risk and M&A deals, along with
analytical tools that include, Merge Company and Peer Group Analyzer and
over 3000 global product NPVs (Net Present Value) linked to share price.

In 2007 EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha launched offering a valuation service
designed to quantify market events and the impact on product, portfolio and
company valuation – NPV Analyzer, Calendar of Events and the daily news
service EP Vantage.

        For all media enquiries please contact:
        Andrew Beaven
        Marketing Director, EvaluatePharma Ltd
        T: +44(0)20-7539-1818
        E: andrewb@evaluatepharma.com

        EvaluatePharma Ltd
        11-29 Fashion Street
        London
        E1 6PX
        United Kingdom

SOURCE EvaluatePharma Ltd


Source: newswire



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