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Medics Warn Bird Flu May Kill 150,000 in Italy, Disrupt Economy

Posted on: Tuesday, 13 September 2005, 12:00 CDT

Excerpt from report by Daniela Daniele: "Epidemic: 150,000 dead in Italy "by Italian newspaper La Stampa website on 13 September

Rome: "We can only prepare the dikes." The words used by Klaus Stoehr of the World Health Organization's "Global Influenza Programme" sum up the situation. They highlight the experts' belief that an epidemic is "at this juncture simply a matter of time". And from the second "European Conference on Influenza" on the slate in Malta until Wednesday [14 September], here is the forecast for our own country: Up to 16m infected, 2m hospitalizations, 150,000 dead, and the risk of ending up with the country on its knees, with its economy, its transport and even its health services at the mercy of a supervirus. The prophets of doom in this case are the medics with the Italian Society of General Medicine [SIMG].

Italy is in the front line on the vaccine strategy, but the vaccine will become available only eight months after the epidemic virus has been isolated. The reason for concern is linked mostly to the fact that we are lagging behind in stocking up on antivirus drugs. Even Health Minister Francesco Storace has admitted himself that there have been delays, but he said reassuringly: "A decree will be approved next Friday [16 September] allowing the purchase of further stocks to the tune of some 6m antivirus cycles, capable of covering 10 per cent of the population. A further 10 per cent will be concerned by the efforts that the regional authorities are making. So we are getting back on track." Ever since avian influenza virus H5N1 infected its first human victims in Hong Kong back in 1997, it has been judged to be the most likely candidate to trigger an epidemic. [passage omitted]

The SIMG's medics have prepared two editorial tools, a white paper and a pamphlet, for medical staff and ordinary citizens respectively. Both will be available by the end of September. The white paper is designed to be a tool providing all-round information for those tasked with handling the influenza from a clinical viewpoint; while the 16-page pamphlet for ordinary citizens, which is due to be disseminated via family doctors' surgeries, contains basic information for consultation in the event of an emergency. Also, every ASL [local health unit] is going to appoint a commissioner whose task it will be to manage the emergency in the event of an epidemic.

The Civil Protection Department is to be involved in distributing antivirus drugs and vaccines to pharmacies, while military hospitals will also be called on to play their part. To avoid having to deny hospital beds to the most serious cases, wards in military structures are to be converted so as to offer greater assistance. It is also possible that schools may be temporarily shut down, but that is a decision that will be made on the spur of the moment in light of the epidemic's magnitude. These measures, enshrined in a new plan put together by the Health Ministry's Influenza Epidemic Committee, were reported by Committee Coordinator Pietro Crovari yesterday.

Source: BBC Monitoring European

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