WHO Chief Says Global Bird Flu Pandemic “on the Way”

Text of report in English by South Korean newspaper Choson Ilbo website on 13 October

World Health Organization Director-General Lee Jong-wook warned Thursday [13 October] it is only a matter of time before the bird flu virus mutates to spread human-to-human and causes a pandemic. Speaking on return to his homeland Korea on Thursday after visiting Cambodia, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia, where fears of a fresh outbreak are greatest, the WHO chief hinted it was better to exaggerate the threat now than be sorry after the fact. Excerpts from an interview with the Chosun Ilbo follow.

[Choson Ilbo] Is it possible for the avian flu to spread human- to-human, leading to a global pandemic?

[Lee] We can’t say exactly when, but that event is clearly on the way. And when that happens, even speaking conservatively, millions will lose their lives. There will be countries that simply will not be able to cope with the situation, as well as leaders who will not be capable of handling the response after the fact. Even if we end up being criticized later because causalities did not meet our predictions, the objective of our warning now is to inform the public of the seriousness of the threat posed by the avian flu, and to make sure that people make adequate provisions ahead of time.”

[Choson Ilbo] The US and some European nations are stocking up on the anti-viral drug Tamiflu…

[Lee] Korea also has some Tamiflu in reserve, but the Swiss have set aside drugs for as many as 25 per cent of their population of seven million. Japan has also ordered 20 million doses, and European countries are purchasing enough of the drug for 20 per cent of their population. Orders are outstripping production. Roche has promised to help countries manufacture the vaccine without asking for royalties. But due to the technical complexity of production, just making generic anti-viral drugs will take at least two to three years. So we are considering setting up a system whereby the drug or other medicines will be dispensed to countries in an emergency by the WHO, like the smallpox vaccine.

[Choson Ilbo] What is it that countries like South Korea need to do?

[Lee] Each country needs to share information about bird flu epidemics with the WHO and neighbouring countries in real time. Since the disease can be carried by migratory birds, South Korea should set up a system of close cooperation with North Korea. It is also necessary to ensure that farmers get enough compensation when they slaughter and dispose of chickens and ducks that show signs of infection. In Southeast Asia, that kind of compensation has yet to be settled. And individually, people must get vaccinated against flu, particularly those who raise poultry.