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Birds Found in Turkey With Deadly Strain of Flu

Posted on: Friday, 14 October 2005, 06:00 CDT

By Anita Manning

A deadly bird virus that scientists fear could mutate and cause a human flu pandemic has been found in Turkey, increasing concern that the virus is spreading unchecked.

The European Union, which banned imports of live birds and feathers from Turkey on Monday, issued a similar ban Thursday on imports from Romania, as tests are underway to determine whether a bird flu virus in that country is the same strain.

The spread of the virus from Asia, where it has devastated poultry flocks and infected 117 people, causing roughly 60 deaths, is thought to be the result of migrations of infected wild birds.

EU Health Commissioner Markos Kyprianou told the Associated Press the virus found in Turkey is directly related to viruses found in Russia, Mongolia and China. The commission, in a news release Thursday, announced that an emergency meeting of avian flu experts will be held today to "evaluate the risk that migratory birds may pose for the EU" and to make recommendations.

There have been no human cases in Europe or the USA, but health experts say that if the bird flu virus mutates, it could spark a flu pandemic.

Bird flu viruses are common, said infectious disease specialist William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University, but this one is "unprecedented in its geographic reach and its persistence, despite efforts to curtail it." That's a concern, Schaffner says, because "the more it multiplies, the greater the chance it will mutate" into a form that easily infects people.

Preparations for a flu pandemic have begun. U.S. health officials are in Asia gathering information, and the Bush administration is expected to release its pandemic preparedness plan next week.

But vaccines are still in the development stage. Also, the United States has plans to stockpile 4.3million courses of the antiviral Tamiflu by the end of the year, says Terence Hurley, spokesman for Roche Pharmaceuticals, the maker of Tamiflu. That would be enough for less than 1% of the population.

How much time remains to prepare for a pandemic is not known, said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

"If we have a year, drugs and vaccines could play a role in some countries," he said. "If we have five or 10 years, we could embark on a Manhattan-like project, looking at new vaccines with truly robust industry capabilities."

But if it happens soon, there will be little anyone can do, he said. Most people would survive, he said, but the disruption to society would be great. "There will be lots of collateral damage. We're going to run out of food and medication. There's the potential for unrest and security concerns. We're going to find a very different world."

(c) Copyright 2005 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc.

Source: USA TODAY

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