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BIRD FLU: NOT IF, BUT WHEN ; Midlands on Alert for Bird Flu Pandemic

Posted on: Monday, 17 October 2005, 09:00 CDT

By ADAM ASPINALL

WORRIED health chiefs last night revealed the nightmare scenario of a Midland bird flu pandemic and said: "It's not a question of if it happens - but when."

The Government is drawing up emergency contingency plans after poultry tested positive for the killer disease in Turkey.

Fears are growing that the virus, which has already claimed 60 lives in the Far East, could soon reach our shores.

If the strain mutates to infect humans, the Department of Health predicts that one in four people could fall victim - resulting in at least 50,000 deaths. In the worst case scenario, over half a million Britons could die.

The Sunday Mercury has discovered that the Health Protection Agency in the West Midlands has already drawn up detailed plans to deal with any outbreak in our region.

Its emergency planning adviser, Alastair Bartholemew, said: "We can't say who the virus will affect or where it will hit.

"We can't be sure when this is going to happen, but we do know that it will arrive at some point.

"It's a question of when, not if." The last great pandemicwas the Spanish flu in 1918 and 1919 which killed between 25 and 50 million people - more than in the Great War.

The deadly form of avian influenza, called H5N1, has been found in poultry and other birds in several Asian countries since 2003.

Around 120 people have so far caught the infection as a result of close and direct contact with infected birds, resulting in 60 deaths.

As yet there is no firm evidence that the disease can pass from person to person. But if, as expected, it does mutate then some experts fear it could eventually claim 150 million lives worldwide.

Confirmation that the H5N1 virus had been discovered in the Turkish village of Kizilkoy on Thursday sent shockwaves through Europe.

Up to 200,000 turkeys and chickens in a two-mile quarantine zone have now been been culled and buried in 20ft-deep lime pits.

Mr Bartholemew warned that an outbreak in the Midlands could spark similar bird culls. But if the virus began to pass from human to human than a huge 'people tragedy' could be on the cards.

"It will not simply be a matter of a few people taking a few days off," he said.

"A pandemic would cause significant health problems that would last between three to six months. The knock-on effects could be huge."

It is understood that the agency is in contact with Midland emergency services, councils and health bodies to draw up plans to cope with a pandemic Mr Bartholemew added: "We are encouraging every organisation to work out how they would cope with an outbreak while still delivering their normal services.

"Different parts of the economy will come under strains at different times, depending on the strength of the outbreak.

"For example, parents with young children will have to take time off work, leading to significant drops in manpower in certain sectors."

Symptoms of the disease would not beeasy to spot in the early stages. "Any symptomswould be very similar to flu such as a high fever, congestion and headaches," explained Mr Bartholemew.

"But we really don't know exactly what we would be looking for at this stage."

Professor Thea Sinclair, from Nottingham University Business School, said a limited outbreak of bird flu would have its greatest impact on leisure and tourism.

Foreign tourists would stay away from the UK and domestic travel would suffer, leading to a domestic decline of about pounds 2.5 billion and the loss of 97,000 jobs.

However, in the worst case scenario where the disease spreads to humans 'the pandemic would affect every aspect of life in Britain,' she said.

"For a period of around four months, about 25 per cent of the population would be directly affected by the disease in some way.

"This could be through contracting avian influenza, contracting another form of influenza and being restricted from normal activities as a precautionary measure, having a family member infected, or being in an area of a high incidence of outbreak and therefore being quarantined and being unable to get to work or carry out normal activities."

A bird flu outbreak could see mass public gatherings banned to prevent further contamination - including football matches and pop concerts.

Britain has stockpiled six million treatment courses of the antiviral, Tamiflu, and has ordered a further eight million. But they are unlikely to be available for another year

Source: Sunday Mercury; Birmingham (UK)

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