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Repeat of 1918 Flu 'Unlikely'

Posted on: Sunday, 30 October 2005, 15:00 CST

By HAYMAN, Kamala

The virulent and contagious 1918 flu pandemic evolved in the uniquely crowded and unsanitary conditions of the World War 1 trenches and is unlikely to be repeated, claims an American science writer.

Governments, health experts and scientists around the world are warning the bird flu circulating in Asia could mutate into a virus as deadly as that seen in 1918, killing millions worldwide.

The New Zealand Government has committed $32 million to buy antiviral drugs and protection equipment for frontline workers and some 200 planners are considering how to cope with as many as 33,000 deaths.

However, American science writer Wendy Orent remained skeptical that another pandemic could be as serious as that in 1918.

Orent, who writes in the Washington Post, yesterday told Radio New Zealand listeners the 1918 pandemic was "a one-off".

The virus became "very very highly evolved" thanks to the unique environment of WWI making it not only infectious but deadly.

The current H5N1 virus, which has killed more than 60 people, was found deep in the lung tissues of its victims so was not readily transmitted through coughing or sneezing. To spread it would have to change significantly to infect the upper respiratory tracts. "We're a long way from (that)," she said.

Internationally renowned virologist Christchurch's Lance Jennings said Orent could be correct.

"Certainly a number of changes do need to occur in that virus for it to become highly pathogenic in humans." But he said no one fully understood the evolutionary processes which could force that.

There was particular concern about H5N1 because of its spread and rapid evolution.

"We're in uncharted territory."

Source: Press, The; Christchurch, New Zealand

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