Here Comes the Flu: Infected Birds May Arrive Soon

By Troy Anderson Staff Writer

Warning that the U.S. is "overdue and underprepared" for a deadly flu pandemic, health officials said Thursday that birds carrying the avian virus are likely to arrive in California within two months.

And if the virus transfers from birds to humans – which officials say is very likely – the pandemic is likely to start in California and spread across the country in two to four weeks.

At a pandemic flu summit held in Los Angeles, federal, state and local officials said the virus has quickly moved through 40 countries on the wings of wild birds and is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1918 flu pandemic that killed 40 million people worldwide.

"Scientists are concerned because this particular virus has the same genetic characteristics that the 1918 virus had," U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said. "It was a vicious killer. And those that have already contracted the avian flu are manifesting the same symptoms that those in 1918 had.

"If a pandemic happens, it will come to California. And when it comes to pandemics, we are overdue and underprepared."

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Health and Human Services chief Kimberly Belshe, Los Angeles County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky and hundreds of other officials met at the Bonaventure Hotel to encourage and coordinate planning efforts throughout the state.

Leavitt signed an agreement with Schwarzenegger and Yaroslavsky to provide $6.7 million to launch planning efforts in California, including $2.9 million for L.A. County. Out of $3 billion set aside nationally for preparations, Congress has approved $350 million for state and local governments.

Schwarzenegger has also proposed spending $27.6 million to improve planning and purchase 270,000 doses of the antiviral medication Tamiflu; $6 million to expand disease surveillance, strengthen the state’s laboratory infrastructure and build hospital surge capacity; and $17.3 million for a public-information campaign and emergency-preparedness hotline.

"If history is our guide, it is only a matter of time before we face another massive public-health challenge," Schwarzenegger said. "Three times in the last century, pandemics have swept the globe and killed millions and millions of people.

"The bird flu is sending a clear message to all of us: Get ready. Be prepared."

The summit was held in response to the expectation that the H5N1 flu strain will be found in birds in the United States in the next couple of months. Officials emphasized that the detection of the virus in birds will not signal the start of a human pandemic.

The virus has killed tens of thousands of birds and has spread rapidly throughout Asia, Eastern Europe and parts of Africa. While no cases have been reported in the U.S., health officials worry that it could mutate, launching a worldwide pandemic.

If it became contagious among humans, experts say, it could kill more than 180,000 people in California and infect up to 35 percent of the state’s population. Nationwide, up to 90 million people could become ill – half of them requiring medical care – and up to 1.9 million could die.

And because people have no natural immunity to the virus, health experts say healthy adults are also susceptible to becoming seriously ill.

In a pandemic, illness rates will be the highest among school- age children – about 40 percent. Among working adults, an average of 20 percent are expected to become ill.

The risk groups for severe and fatal infections cannot be predicted with certainty, but are likely to include infants, the elderly, pregnant women and people with chronic medical conditions.

Yaroslavsky said county officials are taking steps to minimize the impact of a potential pandemic by increasing hospital surveillance, stockpiling antiviral drugs and preparing plans to convert additional facilities – such as schools – to care for the ill in the event hospitals become overwhelmed.

"We need to prepare for any eventuality," Yaroslavsky said. "As a main port of entry for millions of people – last year, just as an example, 62 million people traveled through Los Angeles International Airport – this county and California are likely to be impacted if we have an influenza pandemic of any origin."

Meanwhile, researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health’s Fogarty International Center released a computer model Thursday that found if a pandemic does hit the United States, it is likely to start in California and spread across the country in two weeks to a month.

Researchers said the best way to slow its spread would be to have workers stay home.

"The unique feature of this model is that it challenges conventional wisdom, which says that flu is spread by children bringing it back to the household," said Dr. Mark A. Miller, associate director of research at the center.

"That may be true at the household level, but regionally it is spread by adults."

Troy Anderson, (213) 974-8985

troy.anderson(at)dailynews.com