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Allergan: Memantine Could Become First-Line Combination Glaucoma Option

Posted on: Thursday, 16 November 2006, 15:01 CST

Allergan's memantine could offer a novel mechanism to slow glaucoma progression if the current phase III trial shows positive data. However, unless the drug demonstrates significant benefits, the high cost of memantine in comparison to available therapies will hinder initial uptake and Datamonitor predicts modest 2008 revenues of $51 million.

A disease of the eye that affects over three million US patients, glaucoma causes degeneration of the optic nerve, leading to progressive blindness. The vast majority of glaucoma patients suffer from primary open angle glaucoma (POAG), a slow progressing form of the disease whose onset has been associated with increased intraocular pressure (IOP).

Currently marketed by Forest Laboratories as Namenda for the treatment of moderate-to-severe Alzheimer's disease, memantine is a novel agent currently in phase III development by Allergan for the treatment of POAG.

As a disease that occurs with greater frequency as age increases, the number of glaucoma patients in the US is rising with the aging population. While effective in many cases, current treatments fail or become less effective over time in a significant proportion of glaucoma patients, creating a large area of unmet need.

Unlike existing glaucoma treatment options which work to reduce IOP, memantine works by directly protecting the optic nerve from toxic calcium levels that are believed to lead to glaucoma progression without impacting other aspects of cell function. This ability to protect the cell from calcium and still allow normal cell function could potentially make memantine a first-line option for the treatment of glaucoma. This could represent a significant treatment advance.

Assuming that memantine is approved for the treatment of POAG in early 2008, memantine could be prescribed to approximately 5% of POAG patients in the US in 2008, growing to 40% by 2012. While the final memantine pricing for the treatment of glaucoma remains unclear, the drug will likely be priced in-line with Forest Laboratories' Namenda at $150 per month, a significant premium to commonly prescribed topical glaucoma treatment options.

This would not appear to be prohibitive, but, given that this agent will likely only be prescribed in combination with existing IOP-lowering options, this relatively high incremental cost could slow the near-term memantine potential. As a result, 2008 memantine revenues are forecast at $51 million, growing to $310 million in 2010 and $477 million by 2012.

For more information on this and similar research, please contact Datamonitor at +1 212 686 7400 or visit www.datamonitor.com/healthcare

Source: Datamonitor

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