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Avian Flu 'is Moving Forward,' Says Doctor

Posted on: Tuesday, 27 February 2007, 06:00 CST

The world is halfway to an avian flu pandemic, and North American authorities are talking about how to prepare for it, according to February's issue of Texas Medicine, a state health magazine.

The World Health Organization -- cited in that issue -- increased its warning level to the third phase, or the "pandemic alert phase."

The organization established a scale of six phases of pandemic flu. The sixth phase is a full-blown pandemic.

Dr. Andrew Eisenberg, driving to an airport near Madisonville Monday night for a flight to attend a pandemic summit, said from a cell phone, that this recent bird flu alert increase is similar to a terror threat increase.

"We expect to see a pandemic at some point, just like New Orleans expected to see a hurricane," said Eisenberg, a family physician who serves on a state public health council. "It's very difficult to predict, though. If it catches fire like it did in 1918, it will spread quickly."

A pandemic is larger and more widespread than an epidemic in that the illness occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a great number of people.

Now in this third phase, it means humans have been infected by the flu but have not spread the bug to each other.

"There have been similar cases of bird flu throughout the last 50 years," Eisenberg said. "If you're in the vicinity of a bird, say 50 yards away, you're probably OK. It's if you come in direct contact with one of these sick animals ..."

The next phase, or Phase 4, would be the "heightened alert phase" because people could more easily transmit the virus. Phase 5 is a heightened alert due to significant human-to-human transmission, and Phase 6 is a full pandemic.

"The World Health Organization set up these benchmarks, and we've hit the third one," said Brent Annear, a Texas Medical Association spokesman, by phone Monday. "The flu is moving forward. Health experts are taking it seriously."

Annear said doctors he's talked to "raised their eyebrows" in concern about this flu phase progression.

Dr. Bain Cate, director of the Victoria City-County Health Department, said he has no comment about the matter and that he hadn't heard about this.

Statewide, though, efforts will be made to prepare for the possibility of a pandemic outbreak domestically, the association says.

"Emphasis will be placed on detecting the first few cases and containing their spread as much as possible to allow the production of enough vaccines ... to cover the majority of the population," the health magazine notes.

To become ready, federal efforts will be made to stockpile ample vaccinations to first protect health care and support workers against the strain, and then produce enough to "immunize the entire U.S. population within six months."

Should a pandemic strike the U.S., the forecasts are chilling, Annear said.

As many as 30 percent of Americans, or 90 million people, could contract the disease in a pandemic outbreak, it is estimated by the World Health Organization.

The number of people predicted to die ranges from 200,000 to as many as 2 million.

"Without intervention, the first U.S. case would be detected in one to two months," said Dr. Luis Escobedo, who is with the Texas Department of State Health Services. "Widespread community outbreaks would ripple through the country in a series of waves lasting two to three months."

The U.S., Canada and Mexico are working together to treat North America as a single, disease-fighting unit to counter-attack a pandemic.

Both health and border authorities are strategizing how to plan for and respond to emergencies, as well as how to identify and count animal and human cases.

Eisenberg, meanwhile, said not to panic. He added that 36,000 people die every year of flu, but that reality is often buried by more sensationalized reports of flu pandemics.

He said to protect yourself from all strains of flu by getting vaccinated, living healthy and washing your hands, especially if you travel internationally.

"Having said that, we are at a risk," he said. "There is a 100 percent likelihood there will be a pandemic. It happens about once a century, but that's still very variable. I don't think the risk is all that high right now, but it is there."

Gabe Semenza is a reporter for the Advocate. Contact him at 361-580-6519 or gsemenza@vicad.com, or comment on this story at

Source: Victoria Advocate, Victoria, Texas

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