EDITORIAL: Intelligence Estimate Shows Terror War Failures

By The Sacramento Bee, Calif.

Jul. 19–At a mere page and a half, the latest National Intelligence Estimate does a tiptoe job on the terrorist threat facing the United States. Yet in presenting a cautious, stealthy assessment, it speaks volumes about U.S. policy failures.

First, the report notes that al-Qaida has regenerated a safe haven in Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan and has protected its top leadership. That’s a change from the April 2006 NIE, which said U.S. efforts had "seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qaida and disrupted its operations."

What it really means: In increasing the U.S. presence in Iraq with President Bush’s "surge," the United States is losing ground and diverting resources from the real battlefield in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Second, the NIE states that al-Qaida looks to exploit the propaganda value of associations with regional groups, such as the Sunni Arab extremist group called "al-Qaida in Iraq" to "energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives."

What it means: Bush’s recent, highly exaggerated claims of connections between al-Qaida central and the Iraq group are counterproductive — making al-Qaida seem more globally powerful than it really is.

The group "al-Qaida in Iraq," created in 2004, is a like-minded group, loosely affiliated to al-Qaida, but it is not Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida central. Yet in major speeches and press conferences in the last two weeks, Bush has treated them as one and the same. At a June 28 speech at the Naval War College, for example, Bush said that Anbar was al-Qaida’s chief base of operations in Iraq and added, "Remember, when I mention al-Qaida, they’re the ones who attacked the United States of America and killed nearly 3,000 people on September the 11th, 2001." Then, at a July 10 speech in Cleveland, Bush said the United States hasn’t been able to achieve its goals in Iraq because "a thinking enemy — in this case, we believe al-Qaida, the same people that attacked us in America," has incited sectarian violence. And on July 12, Bush said: "The same folks that are bombing innocent people in Iraq were the ones who attacked us in America on Sept. 11."

Bush’s portrait of al-Qaida as an omnipresent enemy able to stymie the United States is unseemly. It also falls into the classic trap set by terrorists, described by Paul Wilkinson in his book "Terrorism and the Liberal State": "For if we fall into the error of exaggerating the military capabilities and ambitions of terrorists and underestimating the strengths and advantages of democratic governments and their security forces actively combating them, we are in danger of helping terrorist propaganda."

Third, the NIE notes that other "radical, self-generating cells" are growing in Western countries and finding each other through the Internet, "without requiring a centralized terrorist organization, training camp or leader." That threat currently is greater in Europe than in the United States.

What it means: We need to beef up our multilateral efforts and address increasing anti–U.S. sentiments in the Muslim world.

In sum, this latest NIE is yet another alarm for the president, above all, and for Congress to change course. The United States is fighting the wrong battles and, thus, making its security situation worse.

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Copyright (c) 2007, The Sacramento Bee, Calif.

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