Iraqi Kurdish Writer Analyses Factors That Prevent Turkish Incursion

Text of article by Muhammad Osman entitled: “Neither will Turkey carry out a military incursion nor is PKK telling the truth”; published by Iraqi Patriotic Union of Kurdistan-funded daily Aso on 21 October

It is regrettable that the Kurdish media have so far been unable to point out in a realistic way the truth of Turkey’s military incursion into Kurdistan in a way that would make Kurdish citizens fully understand the issue, its implications and its solutions.

It is obvious too that some political sides and figures are exploiting this matter for their own advantage and publicity, a matter which history will record as a shameful.

Why does Turkey threaten to invade Iraqi Kurdistan?

1. According to the Iraqi constitution no armed group should be allowed to launch military attacks from inside Iraqi land against neighbouring and regional countries.

2. Kurdish leadership agree on this point.

3. Apart from PKK and PJAK all Kurdistan opposition forces [from other parts of Kurdistan who have presence in Iraqi Kurdistan] abide by the Iraqi constitution and their promises to the political leadership in Kurdistan region.

These three points, the pressure of internal right wing nationalistic forces, the statements made by Iraqi officials demonstrating their powerlessness in dealing with this matter and the pressure put by the US on Turkey not to use force, all these factors forced the government of Erdogan to carry the issue of military incursion into Kurdistan to the Turkish parliament to get its permission to attack PKK inside Iraqi Kurdistan.

Will Turkey violate the borders of Iraqi Kurdistan?

Yes, if:

The PKK continues and increased its military attacks inside Turkey and if the two governments of Iraq and Kurdistan Region do not abide by the Iraqi constitution and the US gives Turkey green light to do so.

If the military establishment in Turkey manage to force this issue as a sort of coup to regain the political balance in their favour

These two possibilities are complicated and part from PKK attacks inside Turkey, cannot be correctly predicted.

Why will Turkey not invade Iraqi Kurdistan?

Against the factors that instigate a Turkish military incursion, there are several factors that make this event more unlikely.

A. The Turkish parliament approved a decision to give power to Erdogan’s government to conduct military incursions into Iraq [within a year] but this looks impossible because:

1. The invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan is an invasion of a country in which there is American military and political presence. The US is strongly against any action that would destabilise the security of Iraq, especially in the context of the present conditions of the presidency of George Bush, who is determined to ensure victory to his strategy in Iraq.

2. Erdogan’s trust in the promises and positions of Iraqi government on the one hand and American officials on the other regarding dealing with PKK according to the Iraqi constitution

3. Any military invasion by Erdogan government will lead to the revival of the strength of the military wing in Turkey and this stands against the interests and wishes of Erdogan and his party.

4. Erdogan himself has never supported the use of military means, violence and violating the borders of Kurdistan and Iraq. He believes that the use of force is not the sole possible solution for the issue of PKK.

5. The realization of Erdogan’s government that any military attack against the PKK and Iraqi Kurds will have serious consequences for his government and party inside Turkey, especially in the Kurdish cities where Erdogan’s party got the majority of votes and he does not want to lose this trust by Kurds.

6. Erdogan’s government is not prepared just for the sake of silencing the military establishment in Turkey to sacrifice its international image and stand against all those international bodies and countries that have called upon Turkey not to carry out a military incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan. Erdogan knows that by such an action Turkey will lose its international reputation and his designs to strengthen the international role of Turkey in the world affairs.

B. The political position of Kurdish leadership, Iraq, the US and the international community

The united position of the Kurds, Iraq, US and the international community represents a strong factor against Turkish invasion because:

1. They all stress the necessity of solving the problem of PKK through peaceful means and political dialogue.

2. Preventing the PKK from carrying out military attacks against Turkey from inside Iraqi Kurdistan.

C. The position of the PKK

Here we must ask: what is the position of the PKK in all this?

At a time when the Iraqi government was carrying out its most brutal Anfal campaign against Iraqi Kurdistan, PKK was able to lead a political revolution against Turkey in northern Kurdistan and make all the world know about the national issue of Kurds in Turkey. But it is regrettable that this party has so far failed to accept the fact that armed struggle in Turkey would no longer serve the interests of Kurdish people and would only cause damage and bad reputation especially at this time when there are many Kurdish MPs in Turkish parliament and we all know that if Erdogan and his party are helped to have their own way they will solve the Kurdish issue in Turkey politically. Therefore, the PKK must not by its ugly actions give an excuse to militarist and right wing wings in Turkey to increase their pressure on Erdogan’s government to adopt a military solution.

The results of general elections in Turkey demonstrated that Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party got 60 seats and the Kurdish Democratic Society Party got 20 seats in Kurdish areas. But the PKK leadership still views itself as the sole representative of the Kurdish people in Turkey and even in their literature and media statements they describe Abdulla Ocalan as the leader of the Kurdish nation. But this direction is wrong. The PKK should change its thinking and policies because insistence on them would cause them a disaster. And they will solely be responsible to what will happen to them.

If PKK considers itself a Kurdistani force that protects and defends the interests of the Kurdish nation, then they must first of all work to protect and support the interests of the Kurdish people in Iraq and the establishment of their national rights in the Iraqi constitution the way other Kurdistan’s opposition parties have accepted to work. But unfortunately the PKK not only refuses to abide by these principles, but it also sees itself above all other Kurdistan’s parties. This is no more than an illusion and misleading policies of this party.

IF the PKK wants the interests of the Kurdish people in Iraqi Kurdistan, it must accept the decisions and directions of Kurdistan parliament and government and respect the Iraqi constitution and prevent any excuse to create troubles for Kurdistan region.

If the PKK wants to prevent further distortion of its glorious history and avoid a catastrophic setback, it must declare a cease- fire and stop all its military activities and stop granting excuses to military establishment in Turkey to undermine the reformist plans and efforts of Erdogan government and their wish to solve the Kurdish problem in Turkey through political and constitutional means. It is a stark mistake when PKK claim that the Erdogan government are the enemy of Kurds. This shows how naive the PKK leadership is.

In Turkey today, the Kurds can become MPs and ministers and there are people like Erdogan who want true political reforms. PKK cannot continue its struggle on the basis of ignorance and claim it represents the Kurdish people in Turkey.

PKK needs radical changes to come out of its tight corner and recognize its true [political] size.

How should Turkey deal with the PKK?

This is a question which also needs to be asked. I personally believe that if Erdogan is given free choice by the Turkish state, he will solve the Kurdish problem and PKK issue in the most rational way. But is he free to do what he likes? No, because alongside the authority of the constitution in Turkey there is also the authority of the military establishment, who still perceive themselves as the true protectors of Turkish state and they know very well that the success of Erdogan will further limit their power, especially through Erdogan’s efforts to reform the constitution and bring the military power under the civilian government.

All the above realities and factor make it imperative that enough time and opportunity is given to Erdogan and his government to tackle these difficult issues because unravelling 80 years of an established history is not an easy task. It needs and deserves the support of all those forces and elements that want this system to change.

At present and in the current conditions Erdogan government cannot risk strengthening the military wing in Turkey by opting for direct talks with PKK. But it can do this indirectly through, for example, its acceptance of the continuation of tripartite committee of Turkey, Iraq and the US and broadening it by allowing the participation of other relevant sides. The result will be that Turkey will not launch a military incursion into Kurdistan. In return, the PKK must put a limit to [its armed activities] or a limit must be set for it. The Kurdish leadership must no longer accept this party’s disregard for the interests of the Kurdish people in Kurdistan of Iraq and Turkey. It is in our interests of all sides to have a Turkey with which we all can have good relations.

Originally published by Aso, Kirkuk, in Sorani Kurdish 21 Oct 07 p7.

(c) 2007 BBC Monitoring Middle East. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.