• E-mail
• Print
• Comment
• Font Size
• Digg
• del.icio.us
• Discuss article

Harper Calls for Pakistan Election to Proceed As Canada Gauges Bhutto Fallout

Posted on: Thursday, 27 December 2007, 21:00 CST

By Alexander Panetta, THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA - The shockwaves of Benazir Bhutto's assassination rippled into Canada as the government, the military, and the Pakistani community cast a wary eye toward tumultuous south Asia.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper urged Pakistan to proceed with its scheduled election in two weeks - this despite the country's main opposition party announcing a boycott after Bhutto's murder.

"This cannot be allowed to permit any delay in the return of Pakistan to full democracy," Harper said in Calgary.

"(Democracy is) something the people of Pakistan have been waiting for, for far too long."

Bhutto, the leading lady of Asian politics, was shot in the neck and chest while leaving a rally as she campaigned for her third stint as Pakistan's prime minister. Her attacker then blew himself up, also killing at least 20 others.

Images of burning tires, smashed glass, grown men crying, and angry mobs forming in the streets of Pakistan offered an instant illustration of the turmoil in which the nuclear-armed country now finds itself.

With so much of Canada's interests tied up in next-door neighbour Afghanistan, politicians and military experts grappled with the potential implications of Bhutto's killing.

Canadian policy-makers weighed the possible impact on diplomats, aid workers, and 2,500 soldiers helping to rebuild Afghanistan.

The fears were far more personal for Canada's Pakistani community, which was gripped with concern for relatives and friends back home.

News of Bhutto's killing reached the prime minister as he was wrapping up holidays with his family in Calgary, and it caused him to briefly delay his return to Ottawa.

He implored Pakistani authorities to seek out and prosecute the organizers of what he called an abhorrent act of terror. And he insisted that elections proceed as planned on Jan. 8.

Those elections are now soaked in uncertainty following Bhutto's killing, with a main opposition leader boycotting them and Pervez Musharraf grappling with whether to suspend them.

Harper said they must go on despite the assassination.

The western world's interest in Pakistan has grown exponentially in the past few years, largely because it is a volatile nuclear power at the forefront of the war against terrorism.

And Canada is right in the thick of it.

The country has lost 73 soldiers in Afghanistan and sustained hundreds more injuries fighting an enemy whose central command is actually across the border.

Canada's multibillion-dollar reconstruction effort has also been slowed by the spate of suicide bombings, shootings, and roadside explosions in southern Afghanistan.

Military analysts and the Afghan government note that pro-Taliban fighters often are recruited, armed, and given refuge in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan.

One expert on the region laid out what he calls the nightmare scenario. It involves a potentially lethal combination: nuclear weapons, radical Islam, and the Pakistani military.

Bhutto's assassination could embolden Islamist military leaders in Pakistan enough to launch a coup against president Pervez Musharraf, said Louis Delvoie, Canada's former high commissioner to Pakistan.

"You would have not only no longer any effective action against the tribal areas, you would have in fact probably support for the Taliban," said Delvoie, now a senior fellow at Queen's University.

"And you would have an Islamist military government with nuclear weapons."

"That is the nightmare scenario."

While in Pakistan, Delvoie met frequently with Bhutto in her role as opposition leader and then as prime minister. He said her killing has taken an already complicated situation and made it more dangerous.

Even if there isn't a coup attempt, he warned the country could devolve into something resembling a civil war, with tribal factions fighting against each other, as well as against the Musharraf government.

But another prominent military analyst said there could be a brief silver lining in Afghanistan amid the instability next door. He urged Canada and its NATO allies to work quickly to exploit a possible opportunity.

John Thompson of the Mackenzie Institute says Islamic fighters in Pakistan will probably have their eye on a bigger prize - gaining control of their own country - and may scale back operations across the border.

"There might be a desire to pull guerillas out of Afghanistan for the next little while to use them to support Islamist paramilitaries inside Pakistan," Thompson said in an interview.

"The supply of arms and ammunition, and IEDs . . . could be diverted to other points for the next little while."

So what should Canadians and their NATO allies do if there's a temporary lull in the fighting? Work twice as quickly on development prjects to win the hearts and minds of ordinary Afghans, says Thompson.

"I think they've got an opportunity right now - if they act quickly," he said.

"(They should build) more schools, more roads, convince more tribal elders that the government is a good thing. they need to build more medical clinics now, when they have a chance."

It's true that chaos in Pakistan could, over the long term, further destabilize Afghanistan by prompting a greater flow of insurgents, military equipment and heroin across the border, he said.

But the border area has never been governable and will continue to be that way regardless of who's leading Pakistan.

"You land in Karachi and take a short taxi ride, and you're suddenly in an area where Pakistan police don't dare to go," he said.

"Support for al-Qaida and the Taliban, and the sanctuary areas, will always be in use."

To members of Canada's Pakistani community, which by some estimates numbers more than 300,000, the fears are far less academic.

Mubashar Rasool, head of the Pakistan People's Party of Quebec, believes the country may be on the verge of civil war.

"We're very close to that." he said.

In the shops of east-end Toronto's Pakistani business district, many expressed concern for loved ones living in a country embroiled in strife.

"All the time, every week, it's bomb blasting over there," said Anwar Ahmad, 50, who spoke with his father and sister in Pakistan following the assassination.

Source: Canadian Press

More News in this Category