No Losers Seen in Colombian Hostage Deal
By Sibylla Brodzinsky and Pablo Bachelet, The Miami Herald
Jan. 11–BOGOTA — The Colombian hostage crisis had become a political minefield, but Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his Colombian counterpart, Alvaro Uribe, found a way to emerge unscathed, analysts say.
The conservative Uribe and the socialist Chavez set aside their quarrels and each made concessions to obtain the freedom of Clara Rojas and Consuelo Gonzalez from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC.
Chavez and the FARC agreed to a quick extraction without a big demilitarized zone, a longtime FARC demand. Uribe, by allowing the operation to go forward, showed flexibility but managed to somewhat limit the international acclaim that Chavez cherishes.
‘GET IN, GET OUT’
“What happened today was a lot what the Colombian government wanted the Venezuelan mission to look like — low profile, very quick, don’t screw around, get in, get out,” said Adam Isacson, a Colombia watcher with the Center for International Policy in Washington.
Chavez did not completely abandon his flair for publicity. He had Venezuelan TV film the women’s release and then welcomed them at an elaborate ceremony in Caracas. But there was no host of foreign dignitaries, as he had wanted.
The State Department seemed reluctant to give Chavez any credit. Spokesman Tom Casey said the U.S. government was “appreciative” of Uribe’s efforts and only mentioned Chavez after persistent questioning by reporters.
The FARC was eager to give Chavez a boost, said Michael Shifter, with the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank.
“Anything that helps Chavez hurts Uribe,” he said. “They look at this like a zero-sum game.”
Just days ago, hostage negotiations seemed dead. Uribe had ended a Chavez mediation effort to release 46 high-profile captives, complaining the Venezuelan had gone too far in his showmanship and intrusion in Colombian affairs.
‘LAPDOG’
An angry Chavez accused the conservative Uribe of being a U.S. “lapdog” and froze relations. A failed New Year’s Eve effort to release Gonzalez, Rojas, and her son, Emmanuel, who was believed to be a hostage, added to the bitterness.
Isacson said he believes the Colombians now have little choice but to deal with Chavez because he showed he can “get things done with the FARC.” And Uribe will almost certainly come under more pressure to keep the process going.
The FARC will expect a concession from the government, says Bruce Bagley, a Colombia analyst at the University of Miami. ‘They’ll be thinking, ‘OK, we made a gesture, now you make a gesture.’ “
While Uribe is not inclined to make gestures toward the FARC, international pressure will continue to build for him to seek the release of the remaining 44 high-profile hostages, including French-Colombian politician Ingrid Betancourt, three American defense contractors, and dozens of local politicians and military and police officers.
The FARC also regained a measure of credibility, shattered after it failed to release the hostages on New Year’s Eve. But it also may have paid a price.
After the incident-free hand-over of Rojas and Gonzalez, the FARC can hardly keep up its demand for a demilitarized zone in southwestern Colombia for hostage negotiations, said Roman Ortiz, a security analyst with the Bogota think tank Ideas Para la Paz. “There is no longer any rationalization for a demilitarized zone.”
NEW TONE?
The FARC will now set the tone for what is to come, added Ortiz. “The ball’s in their court. They have to decide what they will demand now.”
But rather than offering new efforts toward more hostage releases, top FARC leader Manuel “Sureshot” Marulanda last week called on his forces to launch a “general offensive” against the government.
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