Vote May Signal Castro’s Last Hurrah

By Frances Robles, The Miami Herald

Jan. 19–Cuba’s election Sunday for the national legislature includes the ailing Fidel Castro as a candidate, but experts say the vote may well be the first step toward his retirement.

Castro has recently hinted he’s willing to give up his role of president — opening the door for the first time for the rubber-stamp National Assembly to become a critical force in choosing who runs the island, experts say.

“Is the Council of State going to elect a chief of state for the next five years a person who has not been seen in public for a year and a half?” said Cuba expert Paolo Spadoni, a visiting assistant professor at Rollins College in Winter Park.

“To me, it’s more probable that he will relinquish that role,” he said. “There’s a good chance Fidel Castro will not be the next president.”

Cubans head to the polls Sunday to choose 614 members of the National Assembly. All the candidates are running uncontested and have virtually no chance of losing. Among them: Fidel Castro, 81, whose name will appear on the ballot representing Santiago de Cuba.

Castro was nominated even though he turned over power to his brother Raul “temporarily” in July 2006 after suffering from intestinal bleeding. Three surgeries later, he has not returned to office, and 75-year-old Raul continues to run the nation.

The elder Castro has only been seen in sporadic videos and photographs, the latest this week when he appeared in a video with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

“I think Fidel is ready to take on his political role in Cuba and his historical role before the world,” Lula da Silva said after his meeting. He added that Castro was “incredibly lucid” and has “impeccable health.”

POSSIBLE CHANGE

But despite Lula da Silva’s and others’ assurances that Castro’s health is on the upswing, experts say the next part of the Cuban election process could show otherwise.

The winners of Sunday’s National Assembly election will choose which members will serve on the legislature’s ruling Council of State, which in turn selects the president every five years. That decision is expected in early March. Castro’s title of president refers to the presidency of the Council of State.

There is a good chance Castro could either withdraw his name from consideration or be named to a honorary post where he can continue writing essays on world issues and offer guidance, Cuba watchers say. The decision would pave the way for a permanent title for Raul or perhaps open the way for someone younger.

“My basic duty is not to cling to office and even less to obstruct the path of younger people, but to pass on the experiences and ideas whose modest worth stems from the exceptional era in which I have lived,” Castro said in a letter to the Cuban people in December.

This week, Castro wrote that he’s too sick to speak directly to his constituents, which further fueled speculation that one of the world’s longest-serving rulers was ready to pass on the torch.

“It’s really unheard of in the annals of history to have a temporary head of state for that long,” said Mauricio Font, who heads the Bildner Center for Western Hemisphere Studies in New York. “It’s getting to be a bit bizarre. Cuba must be a really weird place right now, because nobody really knows what’s going on.”

CUBAN PRESS

The Cuban press has hailed Sunday’s election as a true democratic process — one that will change the face of the National Assembly.

More than 60 percent of the candidates are under 50, Cuba’s daily newspaper Granma reported, and only one-third are incumbents. Women make up 42 percent of the candidates, and blacks 20 percent. Only 17 percent of the candidates are old enough to have experienced capitalism in pre-Castro Cuba.

A Santeria high priest and three evangelical ministers are also on the ballot.

“This is not a free democratic election. It’s a farce,” said Eleno Oviedo, a member of Plantados, an organization of former political prisoners. “It’s something that doesn’t mean anything for freedom, doesn’t mean anything for democracy.”

His and other Miami exile groups are urging Cubans to boycott the process.

“Fidel Castro will be reelected,” said prominent dissident Miriam Leiva. “That said, according to what he expressed in his reflections, it seems he will take a role of guide, advisor or supervisor. That means it could create the position of honorary president or . . . continue to be president but with someone else actually doing the job.”

In Cuba, she said, most people expect Raul Castro’s power to be reaffirmed.

If a new president is named, not only would it dramatically seal Cuba’s transition of power, but it could also cause a leadership shuffle in the top halls of power. Vice President Carlos Lage, Assembly Speaker Ricardo Alarcon and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque could be tapped for higher positions — or pushed aside.

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