Serbia’s Denial of Kosovo Reality to Negatively Impact on Local Serbs – Agency

Text of report in English by Serbian weekly news agency Beta Week service

[BETA Commentary: "No Compromise"]

Serbia has responded with strong protests and even stronger dissatisfaction to the province of Kosovo’s declaration of independence.

The political situation in Belgrade is extremely tense and it is still not clear what will happen in the months to come. The country could either opt for a serious confrontation with the U. S. and EU, which it says have violated international law and taken a part of its territory, or turn back to European integration once the dust settles.

Immediately after the U. S. recognized the independence of Kosovo, Serbia recalled its ambassador to Washington DC, Ivan Vujacic, for consultations, doing the same with every other country to recognize the province. That is also about as far as Serbia can go without putting its European integration in jeopardy. Since the most influential countries in the world obviously will not change their mind about Kosovo just because Serbia has withdrawn its ambassadors, this measure is unlikely to have an effect on Kosovo’s independence.

No Less Divided

In other words, Belgrade will eventually have to rescind its decision and send its ambassadors back unless it wants to hurt its relations with the international community. As for how long that will take, that depends on whether pro-European President Boris Tadic will be able to get the European integration process back on track after the first wave of anger dies down.

In their first reactions to Kosovo’s secession, both Tadic and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica expressed their anger in largely the same way.

However, it is nevertheless more than obvious that they have very different views on what needs to be done next. Kostunica has lashed out at Washington DC and Brussels for “dismembering” a sovereign state, emphasizing that the process began with the 1999 NATO air war against Serbia. Conversely, Tadic has called for restraint, especially in regard to statements that would affect the European course he supports.

For now, however, Tadic and Kostunica are working well together and their public activities on Kosovo are their main concern. On Feb. 18, Tadic spoke out against the independence of Kosovo at an emergency meeting of the U. N. Security Council. On the same day, Parliament held its own emergency session to pass a measure annulling any attempt by Kosovo to gain independence. The motion passed overwhelmingly, but has little power over the international community or Kosovo. While Serbian lawmakers were no doubt aware of this, the symbolic message is that Serbia will not compromise on Kosovo.

Almost the entire cabinet, including ministers from Tadic’s Democratic Party, were in Kosovo on that day that Kosovo declared independence. Their presence was meant to indicate the cabinet’s readiness to help the Serb community. The cabinet has pledged to boost economic aid to Serb municipalities, invest in the local economy, and create new jobs. Serbs have been urged not to leave their homes and have been assured that Belgrade will protect them.

Kosovo

The predominantly Serb areas of Kosovo, especially the enclave in the north around the ethnically divided city of Kosovska Mitrovica, will not accept Kosovo’s independence. This enclave is right on the border with Serbia and has functioned as a part of the country up till now. This should be expected to continue and observers in Belgrade and Pristina believe that the international administration will tolerate such a situation. The fact of the matter is that Belgrade is in control of the Serb community and Pristina does not stand a chance of changing that.

At the same time, Serbia will not break off diplomatic relations with Kosovo because that would hurt the Serb community. In addition, the cabinet will press the international community for assurances that the non-Albanian population of Kosovo will be kept safe, together with Serb cultural monument s, churches, and monasteries.

The Kosovo Serbs will probably try to organize balloting in their municipalities on May 11, when local elections have been scheduled in Serbia. The leading Kosovo Serb parties refused to participate in the latest general and local elections in the province, held on Nov. 17. While the international community and Kosovo authorities will no doubt be far from pleased with that, it is hard to imagine them using force to prevent the Serb community from voting in the Serbian elections.

The Serb and Albanian side will therefore exist in mutual political denial, making it virtually impossible for them to live together. The Serbs will certainly be in a worse position, particularly in enclaves located elsewhere in the province. To provide these areas with aid, the Serbian authorities would have to cooperate with the international and Kosovo administration, but Belgrade considers both illegal and responsible for the forceful separation of Serbian territory.

Originally published by Beta Week, Belgrade, in English 21 Feb 08.

(c) 2008 BBC Monitoring European. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.