Prachanda Wins, Red Star Rises Over Nepal

Sudeshna Sarkar & Indrani Bagchi

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KATHMANDU/NEW DELHI: Maoists on Saturday widened their lead in Nepal’s constituent assembly elections, defying New Delhi’s assumptions.

The erstwhile guerillas bagged 25 of the 40 seats declared on the second day of counting, while leading in almost 70 of the 122 constituencies where counting was in progress.

The gains for the Maoists came at the cost of the veterans of Nepali Congress (NC) as well as the Communist Party of Nepal- Unified Marxist Leninist(UML).

Though former prime minister Sher Bahadur Debuba of NC was leading from his Kanchanpur district, another ex-premier Surya Bahadur Thapa, who was nominated by King Gyanendra in 2003, was losing. Prime minister Koirala’s daughter, Sujata, cousin Sushil and nephew Shekhar Koirala as well as NC home minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula were also trailing behind.

UML also suffered a humiliation when its chief Madhav Kumar Nepal was defeated by little-known Maoist candidate Jhakkur Prasad Subedi in Kathmandu, the bastion of communists in the last general elections in 1999.

Though Nepal was, according to reports, leading in his second constituency in Rautahat district, he resigned as general secretary of the party, owning responsibility for its worst rout. Sushil Koirala, deputy chief of the NC, also resigned after suffering the setback.

If the Maoists in Nepal maintain their early lead in the counting after Thursday’s constituent assembly elections, guerrilla leader Prachanda could well realize his dream of becoming Nepal’s first executive president.

The early results left India gulping in barely concealed shock. No matter how the ultimate results look like, the ground has shifted in Nepal and India needs to sit up and take notice. Politically, and ideologically too, it opens up new, not all positive, issues for India.

Until Friday, the Indian government’s assessment of the elections was that the polls would result in a political stalemate denying Maoists the leeway to implement their agenda. But on Saturday, the picture looks substantially different, and India’s comfort levels with an ultra-Left combine in Kathmandu will be significantly lower. Ultimately though, it’s clear Nepalis have voted for change and India will have to live with it.

The Maoists’ rise will not make the US comfortable either, but given the fact that the elections have been declared fair by a whole host of international observers, they cannot possibly disown them either. The MEA had very consciously kept out Indian observer missions to Nepal – a delegation with Sitaram Yechury, DP Tripathi etc, was politely told to stay away from Nepal so as to bring down any anti-India sentiment that may show up.

The Maoists will do really well, said sources, in the 240 seats that have first-past-the-post elections. Another 335 seats will be decided on the basis of proportional representation and 25 nominated seats, which means the magic figure for majority is 288. This will ensure a fair balance in the constituent assembly, which has its task cut out for the next two years, delivering governance and drafting a constitution.

In his victory speech, Maoist leader Prachanda sought to allay fears about the win of ultra-reds. “People are asking, what is this Maoist party,” he said, heavily garlanded and wearing the red vermillion mark after the result in his Kathmandu seat was announced.

“And the international community is asking what will happen after the Maoists win. All these fears are unncessary.”

The supreme commander of a once dreaded guerrilla army said his party would focus on peace, rconciliation fast-paced economic development and harmonious relations with the world, especiallly neighbours India and China.

Given the results, it’s a little ironic, because it was the Maoists who had insisted on proportional representation. In a first- past-the post system the Maoists would have clearly swept the polls. In the constituent assembly too, Maoists had inserted a number of conditions in making decisions, which they had done to safeguard their own interests. Now these conditions will compel them to work with other parties, though if the others’ presence is really low this argument is purely academic.

The important point is that these elections will create the constituent assembly which will decide on the constitution and the kind of government that Nepal will give itself in the years to come.

Certainly, a stronger showing by the Maoists means it’s goodbye monarchy. What remains to be seen is what happens to the army, whether the Maoists insist on a national army that absorbs the Maoists’ cadres etc. certainly, there will be a greater affirmative action programme for janjatis and some radical social agenda may be expected.

But its unlikely to go for mass nationalization programs etc – certainly Prachanda is a lot more pragmatic than that. Though there is a general expectation in India that the new government in Nepal will try to balance India’s role in that country much more with others’ participation.

However, a clearer picture will only emerge several days later when all the results are in and re-polling in about 60 polling stations is completed.

(c) 2008 The Times of India. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.