Belgian Paper Says US President “Thrown Off Balance” By Caucasus Crisis

Text of report by Belgian leading privately-owned newspaper De Standaard website, on 14 August

[Commentary by "esn": "Bush Thrown Off Balance by Crisis in Georgia"]

Brussels – After days of confused US reactions, yesterday Bush lined up firmly behind Georgia.

When it comes to Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, there have always been two schools of thought within the US Administration: the for and the against.

Some saw him as their advance pawn, the democrat, and inspiration for the other former Soviet republics. Another section of diplomats and advisers have always been distrustful of Saakashvili, the thorn in the Russian side who took pleasure in goading the Russians, an authoritarian leader who cracked down hard on any opposition to his policy.

The latter school has always had doubts about Bush’s support for his flamboyant fellow president. They feel that recent events have strengthened their beliefs.

The big question in the salons of Washington over recent days is: Has Bush been playing with fire? He placed Russia up against the wall through his support for the independent Kosovo, his plea for NATO enlargement eastward, and the building of a missile defence shield in Poland. The belief is gaining ground that Bush buoyed up Saakashvili and then shamelessly dropped him.

The Bush Administration has always sent two conflicting messages. US officials say in private that Saakashvili had always been told not to provoke the Russians and if he did he would not be able to count on US help.

But in public Saakashvili is praised as the guardian angel of freedom and democracy. In 2005 Bush promised to a crowd of enthusiastic Georgians in Tbilisi that the United States was their unfailing ally. In addition, the United States helped to strengthen Georgian armed forces, while Saaskashvili saw participation in the Iraq war as good training for the coming “national reunification.”

Some analysts fear that the US warnings to Georgians fell on deaf ears. Probably Saaskashvili drew hope from the conflicting nature of the US position.

Some sources say that the Bush Administration was caught totally by surprise by Saakashvili’s action last week. Critics accuse the Administration of having been able to avert the war if it had adopted a better approach to the crisis.

“The Administration was not focused on Georgia and Russia,” Sarah Mendelson of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies told the Wall Street Journal. The Washington Post adds that the United States believed it had an agreement with the Russians that they would keep any reaction to Georgian military action limited to South Ossetia. The Russians clearly did not do that. Which raises the question: Why did the US intelligence services continue to remain in the dark? The answer is that they are fully occupied with Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

The New York Times reconstructed the US reaction to the events. On 7 August, when the situation escalated in South Ossetia, the Georgian foreign minister phoned the US State Department. He spoke with top diplomat for the Caucasus Daniel Fried. According to his own words he urged the minister once again not to be drawn by Russian provocations. Secretary of Sate Condoleezza Rice did not come to the telephone. In the early morning of Friday 8 August it all ran out of control in South Ossetia.

Bush’s first statement on the conflict was exceptionally docile. It was not until yesterday that he came down firmly behind Georgia and indicated to the Russians the consequences for the place in the international community, although he made no mention of any concrete sanctions. But he did announce he was sending Rice to Tbilisi and that the US Army will help transport humanitarian aid.

But sources close to the events say that this declaration was preceded by nervous talks. The intelligence services do not seem to have any insight into what is happening on the ground. And in his speech Bush was forced to admit that he was not certain whether or not the Russians had in fact penetrated deeper into Georgia or not.

The crisis has already cost him “one or two days” of his vacation.

Originally published by De Standaard website, Groot-Bijgaarden, in Dutch 14 Aug 08.

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