Iraq constitution on track, but not end to violence

By Alastair Macdonald

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – In a month, Iraq should have a
constitution, meeting a deadline set as part of a U.S.-backed
timetable for its transition from occupation to independence.

Whether that can defuse bloody conflict to give Iraqis a
stable and sovereign state remains an open question.

Three months ago, after it had taken 12 weeks just to form
a government, many doubted the Aug. 15 target for the draft
constitution could be met; long, bitter wrangling had dented
hopes raised by an election held, on schedule, on Jan. 30.

Now, few doubt that some form of draft constitution will
appear more or less on time — even though the parliamentary
committee working on it has not, as it once suggested, unveiled
a preliminary text by July 15.

Once a draft text emerges, it will be approved in an
October referendum and form the basis of a new election around
the end of the year.

The process should involve Sunni Arabs, the once dominant
fifth of the population, who largely shunned the last vote out
of fear of the insurgents in their own community or in protest
at a system that handed power to the Shi’ite majority.

“I don’t think anyone seriously doubts there will be a
constitution more or less on time,” said one senior diplomat in
Baghdad. “I’m impressed by how hard everyone’s working on it.”

Sunni leaders, distancing themselves from the insurgents
and their foreign Islamist allies in groups like al Qaeda, have
called on their people to vote next time to show their numbers.

The arrival on the committee last week of Sunnis from
outside parliament to offset their lack of seats in the
assembly has encouraged hopes the text will find broad
acceptance.

Gloomy talk last week from the Shi’ite and Kurdish camps,
forecasting deadlock after their first meeting with the Sunni
contingent, and comments about an effective Sunni veto from the
newcomers, have given way to a return to expectations that the
most divisive issues can simply be put to one side for now.

“You don’t have to decide everything at once,” U.S. Deputy
Secretary of State Robert Zoellick said after visiting Iraqi
leaders in Baghdad this week. “Small is better,” he said.

FRAMEWORK TALKS

Iraqi officials and diplomats stress the constitution must
be a framework for resolving dispute rather than an attempt to
settle every conflict now — including such vexed issues as
Kurdish ambitions to control the northern oil capital Kirkuk or
how far new federal regions might be independent of Baghdad.

There may be drama yet: “It’ll get into really heavy-duty
horsetrading at the end of the month,” said another diplomat.

But an advantage becoming apparent is there already exists
a document on which to work — the Transitional Administrative
Law, or TAL, drawn up under U.S. oversight a year ago.

“Basically, wherever there’s a dispute, the Sunnis are
ready to accept what’s in the TAL,” one of the diplomats said.

Underlying the process are hopes in the government and
among U.S. and British officials whose 150,000 troops are
holding the ring in this heavily armed and divided nation that
an inclusive political process can undermine the insurgency
among the Sunnis.

There is broad acceptance that international Islamists and
hardline followers of Saddam Hussein cannot be bargained with
and will continue disrupting society and the economy for years.

But “outreach” has become something of a catchphrase among
U.S. and British officials who, while insisting on the Iraqi
government’s independence, are pushing behind the scenes
against any tendency to impose government views by simple
majority rule.

“The Sunnis have to feel they’re being given their rightful
place,” said one. “It will require the Shi’ites and Kurds to
reach out … We are pushing the Shi’ites.”

One key concession for Sunnis may be reversing a ban on
Saddam’s former Baath party supporters from state jobs. Easing
Sunni grievances could reduce the freedom of maneuver the
diehard insurgents enjoy at the moment, officials say.

TROOP WITHDRAWAL

Washington and London are keen for domestic reasons to
start pulling out troops next year. They face a dilemma of
appeasing Sunnis demanding an end to occupation while refusing
to yield to violence: “We’re telling them, the quicker they end
the insurgency, the quicker we’re out of here,” a diplomat
said.

While some see foreign troops preventing civil war, Prime
Minister Ibrahim Jaafari has also stepped up assurances to
voters, weary of soldiers’ often menacing presence on the
streets, that Iraqi forces are being trained to replace them.

His criticisms of heavy-handed U.S. policing, along with
grumbling from his Shi’ite Islamist allies about U.S. meddling
in the process of trying Saddam or U.S. contacts with Sunnis
close to the insurgency, as well as Jaafari’s forthcoming visit
to Washington’s regional foe Iran indicate some independence.

There is considerable disillusionment among many Iraqis
that the economy and security have not improved and Jaafari’s
team knows it will need their votes in December to maintain its
grip.

Officials in the U.S.-led coalition caution, however, that
measures popular among Shi’ites, including warmer ties with
Shi’ite Iran, should not alienate Sunni voters further.

“But having more arguments with the Iraqi government is
actually a sign of progress,” said a senior coalition diplomat.

But others outside the coalition view the entire process as
flawed: “What Iraqi government?” said one European diplomat.

“This is basically an American protectorate.

“The constitutional process will continue … But even
Iraqi forces remain under American command … Violence will
continue for many years and that will obstruct economic
reconstruction.”

(Additional reporting by Peter Graff in Baghdad)