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End to Ban Wins Quiet Approval From India Bush Offer to Allow Nuclear Transfers Must Clear Congress

Posted on: Wednesday, 20 July 2005, 12:00 CDT

An agreement between Washington and New Delhi that could move India closer to the mainstream of nuclear-weapons states was greeted by Indian analysts on Tuesday as a gesture of respect for India's rising power, but not as an especially practicable plan.

President George W. Bush reached the agreement on Monday with the Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, that would remove a ban on the sale of civilian nuclear technology to India that has been in place since the 1970s, and end a decades-long source of antagonism between the two countries.

"Both sides have undertaken commitments that are pretty profound, but difficult to deliver," said Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi.

Under the agreement, India would be allowed to buy nuclear fuel and reactor components from the United States and other countries. In return, India would allow international inspections and safeguards on its civilian nuclear program, and refrain from further weapons tests and from transferring arms technology to other countries.

India, the world's fastest-growing major economy after China, faces dire power shortages, with its electricity supply falling 11 percent short of demand and world oil prices putting power out of reach for much of its billion-plus population. A revived nuclear energy program is seen as a breakthrough solution to India's energy woes.

But beyond that, the agreement would bring a significant boost in India's international status: from that of pariah, since it first tested a nuclear weapon in 1974 and refused to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, to something close to formal recognition as a nuclear-armed state.

Indian officials traveling with Singh greeted the agreement as a significant move, but Chellaney and other observers in India were quick to point out that the agreement must be approved by the U.S. Congress and probably other nuclear-armed countries, including Britain, France, China and Russia. Both negotiations could prove contentious, given fears that rewarding India's renegade nuclear program would give clearance for other countries to follow suit.

"The direction is right, but I don't think, as two mature countries, we expected anything dramatic to happen, and I don't think anything dramatic has happened," said A.N. Ram, a retired diplomat who spent 36 years in India's foreign service. "A lot of work has to be done to translate the good intentions into actual cooperation."

Some analysts here went a step further, arguing that the agreement, while favorable to India's energy needs, also played into a U.S. strategy of opening new markets for American reactors, including the AP-1000 reactor made by Westinghouse. The Bush administration had previously sought to sell it to China. Washington tried to sweeten that sale by backing it with the largest-ever loan by the U.S. Export-Import Bank.

"The Indians are going to be thumping their chests saying we've now been acknowledged as a nuclear state," said Rahul Bedi, who writes for Jane's Defense Weekly in New Delhi. "But the fact of the matter is that they're going to have to pay a huge price for it."

There was no immediate reaction from Pakistan, which is considered certain to demand similar concessions.

For the Bush administration, the agreement would be a major step forward in what has been a campaign since 2001 to improve ties with India, in part to create a counterweight to China. That effort was disrupted after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the American decision to provide military aid to Pakistan, India's longtime rival.

Shyam Saran, the Indian foreign secretary, said in an interview that: "We are looking at complete removal of the restrictive technology regimes that India has been subjected to for decades. What this agreement says is that we are willing to assume the same responsibilities and practices no more and no less as other nuclear states."

A senior U.S. State Department official, who spoke under the condition that he would not be identified, said the Bush administration still hoped India would give up its nuclear weapons and that the administration rebuffed an Indian request to be recognized as a nuclear weapons state under the treaty.

"We didn't feel we could somehow formally recognize India as a nuclear state," the official said. "Ultimately, we hope they will elect to join" the treaty.

He said the United States would continue to press Iran and North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons programs on the grounds that they had signed various agreements and then reneged on them, while India had an "impeccable" record of not sharing its weapons technology with other countries.

Several nuclear weapons experts in the United States said in interviews that the main effect of the India accord would be less on Iran, North Korea or even Pakistan which have admitted to sharing weapons technology with others than on the many states that have signed up to the bargain implied by the concept of "atoms for peace."

Among the countries that are thought to be able to produce nuclear weapons but which have not done so are Brazil, Turkey and Japan. The fear is that these countries, seeing the deal offered India, might be tempted to get nuclear arms, especially if the crises over North Korea and Iran spin out of control.

"If you open the door for India, a lot of other countries are likely to step through it," said Leonard Spector, deputy director of the Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies. "China is already thinking of selling additional reactors to Pakistan."

Such concerns are likely to be raised in Congress, despite what appears to be an overall predisposition to improve relations with India.

"We cannot play favorites, breaking the rules of the nonproliferation treaty to favor one nation at the risk of undermining critical international treaties on nuclear weapons," said Representative Edward Markey, a Democrat from Massachusetts.

Bush and Singh sought to portray their meeting as marking the best relations between India and the United States since 1947. Their discussions also encompassed help for India's space program, agriculture, business investment and programs to combat AIDS.

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Anand Giridharadas of the International Herald Tribune reported from Mumbai, and Steven R. Weisman of The New York Times reported from Washington.

Source: International Herald Tribune

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