New ‘Great Game’ defies U.S. interests in C.Asia

By Shamil Baigin

TASHKENT (Reuters) – The United States has won assurances
it can keep its base in Kyrgyzstan, but it may face new
challenges as play resumes in the centuries-old “Great Game”
for influence in strategic Central Asia.

In 2001, Washington won an earlier round when it secured
tacit consent of former colonial ruler Russia and stationed
troops in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan — once Moscow’s imperial
backyard — to back its military operations in Afghanistan.

But Moscow is back in the game, now exploiting suspicion
among the region’s veteran leaders that Washington –
associated with a series of “velvet revolutions” in ex-Soviet
countries — may be out to unseat them too.
“There is a lot of suspicion about U.S. long-term intentions,”
said a senior U.S. diplomat. This diplomat added it was tied to
the mistaken belief Washington was trying to stir up new
revolutions in Central Asia.

At stake for Washington is influence in a region that is a
narcotics crossroads, a vital launching pad for the U.S.
campaign to round up the remnants of the Taliban, and home to
some of the world’s largest oil finds in the last few decades.

Displaying a new coolness to Washington, four of five of
Central Asia’s ex-Soviet states issued a declaration in the
Kazakh capital Astana earlier this month asking when the United
States would withdraw its troops.
Visiting Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said on Tuesday
Kyrgyzstan had agreed to let U.S. troops stay. But the
invitation was not open-ended while a second base in
neighboring Uzbekistan remains in doubt.

VELVET REVOLUTIONS

In the past 20 months, popular revolutions triggered by
disputed elections have unseated long-serving leaders in
ex-Soviet Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.

In March, Kyrgyz veteran leader Askar Akayev fled to Russia
amid violent protests sparked by flawed parliamentary
elections.

These “people’s revolutions” have unnerved Moscow
struggling to keep control over its former colonies and sent
jitters through Central Asia’s authoritarian rulers who brook
no dissent.

Washington denies any role in instigating these
revolutions. But it has not hidden its satisfaction — or its
enthusiasm — for more of the same.

“Many countries think the Americans do not increase
stability when they come to a region but increase instability,”
Andranik Migranian, professor at the Moscow State International
Affairs Institute, told Radio Rossiya.

“It’s not at Moscow or Beijing’s initiative that they are
… countering the United States. They are doing it on their
own initiative,” he said.

NEW “GREAT GAME?”

Washington’s tug-of-war with Moscow for control over
Central Asia brings back historic memories of the 19th century
“Great Game” rivalry between the Russian and British empires.
Beijing seems to be ready now to join the game, too.

Uzbekistan, under fire from the West and human rights
bodies for indiscriminate use of force by troops who reportedly
killed some 500 civilians in an uprising in the city of
Andizhan, is now being embraced by Russia and China.

Following Washington’s demands to hold an independent
inquiry into the May bloodshed, Uzbekistan reminded the United
States that its stay at its air base was only temporary.

But Uzbek President Islam Karimov’s flirtation with Moscow
and Beijing may turn out to be a short one. And the autocratic
ruler may well weather Western criticism and mend its close
ties with Washington soon, diplomats say.

“We see a new ‘Great Game’ unfolding after Astana,” said a
Western diplomat working in Tashkent. “Obviously, the Uzbek
leadership feels offended by Western criticism over Andizhan.”

“But should Karimov openly call America an enemy, his
regime won’t last for long. The issue of possible economic
sanctions against Karimov is on everybody’s lips now, and the
Americans are clearly in possession of all this leverage.”

Kazakhstan, the region’s most economically advanced state,
signed the Astana declaration. But it seems pragmatically to
prefer seeing large Western investments rather than hear calls
for U.S. base withdrawals from its neighbors.

U.S. interests in Kazakhstan include stakes held by
ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips in consortia
developing onshore and offshore oil riches. (Additional
reporting by Christian Lowe in Moscow, Raushan Nurshayeva is
Astana and Dmitry Solovyov in Almaty)