Military Outlines Troop-Cut Plan

WASHINGTON — In a classified briefing to senior Pentagon officials last month, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East outlined a plan that would gradually reduce U.S. forces in Iraq by perhaps 20,000 to 30,000 troops by next spring, three senior military officers and Defense Department officials said Saturday.

The assessment by Gen. John P. Abizaid, the head of the military’s Central Command, tracks with a statement made last week by the top U.S. general in Iraq, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., that the Pentagon could make “some fairly substantial reductions” in troops by next spring and summer.

Together, the generals’ appraisals offer some of the most concrete indications yet that the Pentagon is moving toward reducing U.S. forces in Iraq. They also reflect the Bush administration’s growing concerns over how the country’s involvement in Iraq is influencing domestic considerations.

But in his assessment, given as part of a larger regional analysis, Abizaid has also warned that it is possible that the Pentagon might have to keep the current levels of about 138,000 American soldiers in Iraq throughout 2006 if security and political trends are unfavorable for a withdrawal. The number of troops will temporarily increase this December to provide security for Iraqi elections. And some troops leaving Iraq could be held in Kuwait as a reserve force.

President Bush and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld have insisted that U.S. troops will remain in Iraq as long as necessary and that there is no set timetable for withdrawal. But the war in Iraq and possible troop reductions are expected to come up when Rumsfeld and other top national security aides meet with the president at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, on Thursday.

With some prodding by U.S. officials, a shift in thinking and public pronouncements is also unfolding in Baghdad among Iraqi leaders. Last week, a new commission that includes Casey and the new U.S. ambassador to Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad, as well as the Iraqi defense and interior ministers, held its first meeting to define the conditions to be met for a phased U.S. troop withdrawal.

Under current thinking, as reflected in briefings that Abizaid and Casey have provided to Rumsfeld, the number of U.S. troops would temporarily increase in December to about 160,000 troops, to provide security for elections to a new National Assembly, scheduled for Dec. 15.

Assuming security conditions allow, the number would then gradually decline, first back down to about 138,000 troops, and then by another 20,000 to 30,000 forces by late spring, senior officers and Pentagon officials said. Further reductions of tens of thousands of troops are possible throughout 2006, depending on the conditions set by the U.S.-Iraqi commission.