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Gaza withdrawal a test for Palestinian statehood

Posted on: Wednesday, 10 August 2005, 06:53 CDT

By Wafa Amr

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - As Palestinians prepare to celebrate Israel's pending pullout from Gaza, their leaders face the formidable challenge of proving they can run a territory peacefully.

For any chance of winning statehood, they must dim the appeal of violence by bringing good government and economic hope to Gaza while obtaining a halt to Israeli settlement of the much larger West Bank, officials and diplomats say.

"This is a test. We need to convince the world we deserve a state that would be a stabilizing factor in the region. If we fail, history will not forgive the Palestinians," said Jibril al-Rajoub, security adviser to President Mahmoud Abbas.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's unilateral "Disengagement Plan" entails removing all 21 Jewish settlements in Gaza and four of 120 in the West Bank in an operation due to begin on Aug. 17 and projected to last a month.

Palestinians welcome Israel's exit from Gaza. But they fear Sharon designed the plan as a tradeoff for permanent control over much of the West Bank and Arab East Jerusalem, occupied along with Gaza by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war.

Most Palestinians expect the pullout to go smoothly given a six-month-old truce heeded by most militants and shored up this week by a religious edict from the top Palestinian Muslim cleric against any disruption of the process.

But afterward, Palestinian officials say it may be hard to restrain militants if Israel continues expanding main West Bank settlements and keeps Gaza sealed off from the world on security grounds, dashing hopes of reviving its economy.

CONFIDENCE GAP

"Abbas must narrow the confidence gap between him and the people by bringing order and development to Gaza. But if Israel doesn't help by freezing West Bank settlement, Abbas's policy of non-violence will fail," a Western diplomat said.

"Our test is freighted with questions," said Palestinian cabinet minister Mohammad Ishatyeh. "We are not the key players in this pullout. Our success will hinge entirely on the cooperation of Israel and the international community."

Israel says Abbas is strong enough to crush militants, including the main opposition Islamist faction Hamas that is sworn to smashing the Jewish state, but lacks the will. Sharon rules out talks on statehood before militants are disarmed.

Abbas's aides believe any such crackdown while West Bank settlement surges ahead would discredit Abbas among his people and trigger civil war. They accuse Sharon of posing terms for peace talks designed to ensure they do not happen.

European and Arab diplomats say Abbas has been damaged in dealings with militants by U.S. acceptance of Sharon's view that West Bank settlement blocs are vital to Israeli security and need never be ceded for a final peace deal.

For now, Abbas's aides are focusing on talks with Israel to give Gaza the means of reversing an economic meltdown and ensure the limited pullout establishes a vital link with the West Bank.

Palestinians want Israel to relinquish control of Gaza's border with Egypt, its sole outlet to the Arab world, and to give a green light for a Gaza seaport, airport and a trade and travel corridor across Israel to the West Bank.

"The Palestinian Authority needs to claim ownership of the withdrawal by negotiating elements of disengagement now so that Gaza doesn't end up a ghetto," Palestinian analyst and pollster Khalil Shikaki told Reuters.

FATAH TURMOIL BOGS DOWN ABBAS

Abbas's toughest problem may be the decay of his mainstream Fatah party into factions pitting elderly veterans against young gunmen as well as Hamas, which has carved out de facto power in Gaza where Palestinian Authority institutions have broken down.

He wants to import better arms and equipment for security forces as part of his law-and-order drive directed against lawless Fatah militias and Hamas gunmen. But Israel refuses, saying security men have often doubled as militants. "The Authority has the capacity to impose law and order but it has very weak political leadership and this could lead to civil war," Shikaki said. "Hamas has managed to create a state within a state in Gaza since the Authority has proven impotent."

Popular perceptions that the Authority is fragmenting invite anyone with a gun to challenge it, creating an atmosphere of anarchy. Hamas routed police in gunbattles in July after officers tried to stop renewed rocket fire on Israelis.

Abbas has invited Hamas to join a unity government to foster order, solidify the truce and broaden his peacemaking mandate. Hamas rebuffed the offer as a sham, saying it wanted a general election first it hopes will deliver it a real share of power.

Hamas says it is concerned Abbas will use force against it to exclude Islamists from decision-making after the withdrawal, but that it will continue to rule out disarming.

Parliamentary elections have been slated for January. Polls suggest Fatah will re-emerge as the largest party. But Hamas could gain a third of the vote, riding a public backlash over the perceived corruption and ineffectiveness of Fatah.

That could be enough for Hamas to demand a veto over peace steps with Israel and possibly a place in an Authority cabinet.

"We do not want to rule alone (even if) we win a majority. We favor a coalition. There are many complications that would prevent us forming a government on our own at this stage," Ghazi Hamad, editor of the Hamas newspaper al-Risala, told Reuters.

Any surge toward power by Hamas, which the United States and Israel brand a terrorist group not to be dealt with, would probably put any possible peace process in deep freeze.

In any case, Western and Arab diplomats believe a mistrustful Israel will avoid any "final status" peace talks with Palestinians in the near future after the pullout.

This would make it harder for Abbas to maintain the ceasefire and award Hamas an edge in coming power struggles.

Source: REUTERS

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