Japan: Koizumi Gambles on Future With Early Elections

TOKYO, Aug. 15, 2005 (IPS/GIN) — Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s decision to call a snap election on Sept. 11 is a risky gamble not only for the controversial leader but also for his ambitious plans to reform the economy and turn Japan into an active player in international politics, say analysts.

“Despite his popularity, Koizumi might find that the going is not that easy as the election campaign enters full swing before voting day, which is just less than month away,” said Harumi Arima, a well- known political commentator.

Survey polls indicate Koizumi — whose party slogan is “Don’t Thwart Reform,” in keeping with his four-and-a-half- year term to revitalize the Japanese economy — is still a strong contender in the upcoming Lower House elections.

An NHK television channel poll taken this week shows 47 percent of those polled support the prime minister against 38 percent who do not like him.

The figures indicate the prime minister is popular despite his decision to take his controversial postal reform bill to the people when it was voted out in the Upper House after some members of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) decided not to support it.

“I will let the people decide,” he said angrily, before ordering the dissolution of the Diet after losing the vote last week. Taking a step further, Koizumi firmly told the errant politicians — 30 in all–they will not be able to run on LDP tickets.

Arima points out that these strong-arm tactics are the very reason that things could backfire on Koizumi, as the Japanese society strongly values stability over chaos.

“While the sudden decision to go to elections is exciting for people who are used to staid politicians for many decades, when it comes to the vote there is strong possibility they could shun Koizumi because he is acting against Japanese traditional values,” explained Arima.

Indeed, Japanese media has been spending hours trying to analyze why the prime minister refused, last week, to accept the Diet decision to turn down his postal reforms.

Commentators have called the prime minister “willful” and “disrespectful” of Japanese constitutional laws.

The postal reform bill, touted by Koizumi as necessary to cut away at redundant post offices ( 14,700) and save on national spending, was bitterly opposed as too drastic because of the risk of more than 25,000 postal workers losing their jobs.

Yet another bone of contention was the future of postal savings- a whopping 250 billion U.S. dollars- that are guaranteed by the government.

Critics argued that Koizumi’s privatization bill posed a threat to social security, an aspect they say has been ignored by the prime minister.

“We know that reforming Japan is important but it must be done with minimum pain to the public,” Mizuho Fukushima, a lawyer and head of the Social Democratic Party, told an audience during her election campaign.

Analyst Tetsuro Kato, a political scientist at Hitotsubashi University, says the ongoing political chaos is not welcome for Japan as it pushes for a seat at the United Nations Security Council, apart from dealing with a nuclear threat from North Korea, moving ahead with changes in the constitution and improving relations with China.

“The snap election indicates instability in Japan and a looming split in the ruling LDP that has managed Japan for most of the post- war period. Not the best picture,” he pointed out.

Koizumi’s reforms symbolized the end to public stability by supporting rapid privatization and the process has not always brought the best results, he points out.

Still as politicians scramble to woo voters, surveys also show that voting for the LDP may remain the preferred choice next month, given the lackluster opposition and the nagging understanding that reforming the old practices of Japan that has led to a national debt of seven trillion dollars is crucial.

This can only be carried out by a strong leader such as Koizumi whose rule was preceded with a lot of talk by earlier cabinets but with little action.

“If the LDP makes a strong showing, then Koizumi’s hands will be strengthened. On the diplomatic front, this would mean smooth sailing for his goals to promote Japan as an international power with an active military and close to the United States,” says Kato.

This scenario is watched suspiciously by east Asians who are not happy that under Koizumi, Japan has taken a conservative leaning-he has made it a point to visit Yasukuni Shrine where war criminals are buried, damaging ties with South and North Korea and China.

The latest polls indicate that diplomacy is way below on the list of issues on the election table, with social security and economic growth being the key concerns for the Japanese public, giving Koizumi a lead as long as he can keep up his current image as a man of action.

Overall, says Arima, the election is the result of the pain brought by reforms undertaken to meet globalization, leading Koizumi to project economic reforms but also compensate for the resulting chaos by promising the public a stronger image for their country.