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Chinese Commentary Says Koizumi Election Win Does Not Solve Japan's Problems

Posted on: Monday, 12 September 2005, 09:00 CDT

Text of report by Wu Gufeng, carried by official Chinese news agency Xinhua (New China News Agency); subheadings as carried

Tokyo, 12 September: The results of Japan's 44th House of Representatives election came out in the small hours of 12 September, with the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] and Komeito party winning a two-thirds absolute majority and the LDP itself winning more than 50 per cent of the seats. The biggest opposition, the Democratic Party of Japan, failed to keep the seats it held before the election. Its power to rival the LDP in Congress has thus been greatly weakened. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will be able to continue his rule after the LDP's victory, and the foundation of his administration will be further consolidated. However, other than basically clearing the road for postal privatization, the LDP's victory does not mean that Koizumi will see the smooth solution of other issues of domestic affairs and foreign relations.

LDP's election strategy works

Koizumi's dream of privatizing postal services was dashed after the postal privatization bill was rejected by a plenary session of Japan's House of Councillors on 8 August. Koizumi immediately decided to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election to "seek voters' opinions" on the postal privatization issue. Koizumi ingeniously dominated the lower house election and unfolded a "postal election" favourable to the LDP by playing the "public opinion card".

Koizumi pointed out when stating his reasons for dissolving the House of Representatives that because the Diet had made the decision to oppose the postal reform, he wanted to hear the opinion of the nation and let voters decide whether or not they want to privatize postal services. He said the LDP would not support the election bids of the 37 LDP members who voted against the bill in the House of Representatives. He selected a number of public figures and women as candidates (called "assassins" in the Japanese media) to go out and defeat these opponents.

Koizumi said after his election as LDP president that he would go ahead with the reform even at the expense of crushing the LDP. He repeatedly emphasized during the election: "We cannot carry out reform without postal privatization. What can be done by the private sector should be left to the private sector. Why should post offices be run by civil servants?" Koizumi's image as a "reformer" and his election strategy of sending out "assassins" drew the attention of voters and won victory for the LDP in the general election.

Postal privatization gets priority

Koizumi will hold a special Diet session as soon as possible to resubmit bills relating to postal privatization to secure their early passage. Analysis by the local media is that Koizumi will not be revamping his cabinet for the time being and will give priority to the passage of the postal privatization bills at the special Diet session.

Koizumi said with optimism during the election that if voters voted in favour of postal privatization, LDP councillors who opposed the reform would respect the election results and vote for the postal bills. He also did not give up trying to win over LDP councillors who took the opposition stance, promising that they would not be punished if they vote in favour of the bills in the upper house. The LDP even let out information that it was preparing to sound out those LDP councillors who voted against the bills in the upper house to find out whether they are still opposed to postal privatization, and to persuade them to withdraw from the party if they continue their opposition. Six members have since changed their stance, saying they are now in favour of privatizing postal services. The LDP will feel reassured and emboldened after the general election, because even if the upper house rejected the postal bill, it can still get it passed in the lower house where the LDP and the New Komeito party control two-thirds of the seats.

Since the LDP put postal privatization at the top of its 120 election pledges, it is bound to go all out to push the privatization of postal services after the general election. The LDP believes that Japan needs to carry out reform in the political, economic and social spheres, and postal privatization is the breakthrough point for reforms.

The Komeito party in the ruling coalition emphasized during the election the necessity of postal privatization and made clear its stance on continuing its cooperation with the LDP. Komeito representative Takenori Kanzaki said postal privatization is the symbol of structural reform, and the reform programme of the Koizumi administration will not be materialized without the cooperation of the Komeito party.

Issues confronting Koizumi administration

The LDP's victory in the lower house election paved the way for Koizumi's postal privatization reform. However, it was quite baffling that Koizumi made no mention of issues of foreign relations and domestic affairs other than postal privatization during the election campaign.

In domestic affairs, Japan's low birth rate and ageing population are becoming increasingly serious. Population is on the decline. Although the Japanese economy is out of its all-time low, it is not yet truly back to the road of recovery. Moreover, as the financial crisis worsens, it is not optimistic whether medical care, public pensions and other social security programmes can be maintained. Koizumi was criticized by the Japanese media because he only talked about the importance of postal privatization and made no mention of pressing issues of greater concern to nationals during the election campaign.

In foreign relations, Japan found itself in a tight corner during the four years since Prime Minister Koizumi took over the reins of government. Koizumi held fast to his erroneous historical understanding and paid tribute to the Yasukuni Shrine for four years in a row, with the result that Japan's relations with China, the Republic of Korea and other neighbouring countries seriously deteriorated. The LDP stated in its election platform that it intended to strengthen forward-looking cooperation with China, the Republic of Korea and other neighbouring countries. However, Koizumi said nothing about how he would exert to improve relations with China and the Republic of Korea during the election campaign.

Koizumi said that other problems could be readily solved once the postal privatization reform is put into practice. However, analysts here pointed out that postal privatization is not a pressing issue confronting the Japanese society, saying that the reform of the social security system, which includes medical care and public pensions, is the urgent task to hand. It remains to be seen how Koizumi is going to handle these pressing issues of domestic affairs and foreign relations during his term in the year ahead.

Source: BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific

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