Polish presidential race set for close finish

By Wojciech Moskwa

WARSAW (Reuters) – Moderate Donald Tusk and conservative
rival Lech Kaczynski were running neck and neck on Friday as
Poland prepared for Sunday’s presidential run-off which may
decide the pace of economic reforms.

Voters will choose whether European Union newcomer Poland
speeds up market reforms to try to catch up with richer
partners, or strengthens welfare protection eroded during 16
years of often painful reforms.

The result will also tip the balance in a probable ruling
coalition between Kaczynski’s Law and Justice party and Tusk’s
pro-business Civic Platform, which crushed the scandal-tainted
ruling left in last month’s parliamentary election.

Opinion polls published on Friday showed Kaczynski has
effectively caught up with long-time frontrunner Tusk, a free
market enthusiast who led by 10 points just a week ago.

Tusk won 36.3 percent of the vote in the first round two
weeks ago, 3.2 points ahead of Kaczynski.

One survey showed Kaczynski a fraction ahead and two other
surveys gave Tusk a 4-6 point lead — which with the polls’
standard margin of error of around three percent mean that the
presidential race was wide open.

“Hours before the vote we have no idea who will win,” said
Rafal Chwedoruk, political analyst at Warsaw University.

There is a media blackout on campaign news on Saturday.
Polling stations are open between 0000-1400 EDT on Sunday with
first exit polls expected when voting ends and official results
due on Monday.

Soft-spoken Tusk, 48, paints himself as a force of
modernization who can unite Poles, mend rocky relations with
big neighbors Germany and Russia and anchor the nation of 38
million in the European mainstream.

Kaczynski, 56, promises a clear break from post-communist
Poland under the banner of the “Fourth Republic,” “moral
renewal” and a return to Christian values.

Both men trace their roots to the Solidarity movement which
toppled communism in 1989.

Whoever wins will have considerable powers as
commander-in-chief and a voice in foreign policy. The president
can also propose and veto legislation, nominate prime ministers
and, in some circumstances, dissolve parliament.

POPULIST BACKING

After the October 9 first round of voting Tusk has
underscored his moderate, pro-European image to attract the
mainstream left, while Kaczynski has promised to protect the
poor, slow down privatization and support farmers.

Tusk has been endorsed by the country’s establishment,
including both outgoing leftist President Aleksander
Kwasniewski and his predecessor, fiery anti-communist Lech
Walesa.

However, tough-talking Warsaw mayor Kaczynski has tried to
turn the tables by painting Tusk as a free market zealot who is
too close to a ruling class which has failed to deliver.

Kaczynski’s team also introduced an ugly tone to the
campaign when an aide said Tusk’s grandfather may have
volunteered to join the German army in World War Two.

That claim stung Tusk, member of an ethnic Kashubian
minority in northern Poland, because his grandfather was forced
into the Wehrmacht toward the end of the war only to desert and
join the Polish army in the West.

“Kaczynski’s (campaign) has been guided by tactics, not
morality, for him the goal justifies the means,” Tusk’s party
ally Stefan Niesiolowski told private radio Zet on Friday.

The campaign has stalled coalition talks between Tusk’s and
Kaczynski’s parties.

Conservative prime minister-designate Kazimerz
Marcinkiewicz remains confident, however, that the two will
reach a deal next week, after the presidential campaign fervor
dies out.