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Polish presidential race set for close finish

Posted on: Friday, 21 October 2005, 07:34 CDT

By Wojciech Moskwa

WARSAW (Reuters) - Moderate Donald Tusk and conservative rival Lech Kaczynski were running neck and neck on Friday as Poland prepared for Sunday's presidential run-off which may decide the pace of economic reforms.

Voters will choose whether European Union newcomer Poland speeds up market reforms to try to catch up with richer partners, or strengthens welfare protection eroded during 16 years of often painful reforms.

The result will also tip the balance in a probable ruling coalition between Kaczynski's Law and Justice party and Tusk's pro-business Civic Platform, which crushed the scandal-tainted ruling left in last month's parliamentary election.

Opinion polls published on Friday showed Kaczynski has effectively caught up with long-time frontrunner Tusk, a free market enthusiast who led by 10 points just a week ago.

Tusk won 36.3 percent of the vote in the first round two weeks ago, 3.2 points ahead of Kaczynski.

One survey showed Kaczynski a fraction ahead and two other surveys gave Tusk a 4-6 point lead -- which with the polls' standard margin of error of around three percent mean that the presidential race was wide open.

"Hours before the vote we have no idea who will win," said Rafal Chwedoruk, political analyst at Warsaw University.

There is a media blackout on campaign news on Saturday. Polling stations are open between 0000-1400 EDT on Sunday with first exit polls expected when voting ends and official results due on Monday.

Soft-spoken Tusk, 48, paints himself as a force of modernization who can unite Poles, mend rocky relations with big neighbors Germany and Russia and anchor the nation of 38 million in the European mainstream.

Kaczynski, 56, promises a clear break from post-communist Poland under the banner of the "Fourth Republic," "moral renewal" and a return to Christian values.

Both men trace their roots to the Solidarity movement which toppled communism in 1989.

Whoever wins will have considerable powers as commander-in-chief and a voice in foreign policy. The president can also propose and veto legislation, nominate prime ministers and, in some circumstances, dissolve parliament.

POPULIST BACKING

After the October 9 first round of voting Tusk has underscored his moderate, pro-European image to attract the mainstream left, while Kaczynski has promised to protect the poor, slow down privatization and support farmers.

Tusk has been endorsed by the country's establishment, including both outgoing leftist President Aleksander Kwasniewski and his predecessor, fiery anti-communist Lech Walesa.

However, tough-talking Warsaw mayor Kaczynski has tried to turn the tables by painting Tusk as a free market zealot who is too close to a ruling class which has failed to deliver.

Kaczynski's team also introduced an ugly tone to the campaign when an aide said Tusk's grandfather may have volunteered to join the German army in World War Two.

That claim stung Tusk, member of an ethnic Kashubian minority in northern Poland, because his grandfather was forced into the Wehrmacht toward the end of the war only to desert and join the Polish army in the West.

"Kaczynski's (campaign) has been guided by tactics, not morality, for him the goal justifies the means," Tusk's party ally Stefan Niesiolowski told private radio Zet on Friday.

The campaign has stalled coalition talks between Tusk's and Kaczynski's parties.

Conservative prime minister-designate Kazimerz Marcinkiewicz remains confident, however, that the two will reach a deal next week, after the presidential campaign fervor dies out.

Source: REUTERS

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