Iraq Sunnis look to December vote

By Mariam Karouny

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – With less than three weeks to go before
elections for a new parliament, Iraq’s Sunni Muslim minority,
once strong under Saddam Hussein, is doing everything it can to
make sure it gets its tactics right.

In the last election in January, when a 10-month interim
government was chosen, Sunni Arabs, who make up about a fifth
of the population, either supported their leaders’ call for a
boycott or were too frightened by insurgent threats to vote.

The result was a disaster for the community.

Sunnis, who formed the backbone of the ruling classes under
Saddam and for decades before that, were left with just a
handful of seats — 17 — in the 275-member parliament.

By population, they might have expected to get 50 or more.

The poor showing left them with scant representation on the
committee that drafted a new constitution, a document that
ended up favoring the Shi’ite- and Kurdish-led government and
was approved in a referendum last month.

The charter grants the Shi’ites and Kurds effective
autonomy in northern and southern Iraq, where the country’s oil
wealth lies, leaving Sunnis in the center with no access to
petroleum resources.

Analysts say the frustration that caused in turn fueled the
insurgency, which is largely led by Sunni Arabs, either
loyalists to Saddam or former members of his Baath party.

The next election on December 15 carries more weight than
January’s poll, since the government it produces will have a
four-year mandate, and Sunni political leaders are determined
to ensure they do not make the same mistake again.

“They see it as a challenge…they want to prove
themselves,” said Jaber Habib, a professor of politics at
Baghdad University. “Sunnis will take part widely in this
election. They want to prove their weight.”

STILL DIVIDED

Iraq’s Electoral Commission says registration is up in
Sunni Arab areas since January’s poll, and that was evident in
October’s constitutional referendum, when Sunnis voted in large
numbers, narrowly failing to defeat the charter.

While many more Sunnis are expected to turn out on December
15, and they will probably have more representation in the next
parliament, the community is still divided.

There are at least three major Sunni lists registered to
run in the poll, including an Islamist, anti-occupation group
called the Iraqi Accordance Front, a more secular,
pro-insurgency alliance known as the Iraqi Front for National
Dialogue, and a grouping that is both secular and opposed to
the insurgency.

The variety and the different directions they are pulling
in may split the Sunni vote.

“Running in different lists could affect the weight of the
Sunni vote, it’s true,” says Abdul Hadi al-Zubaidi, a member of
the Iraqi Accordance Front.

“But it is almost impossible to get all votes for one list,
and what matters is that Sunnis are aware of the challenge and
that they will rise up and vote.”

Others say the variety is a sign of strength in that Sunnis
are not running on sectarian lines, but on issues. It is the
Shi’ites and Kurds, they say, who have built ethnic and
sectarian blocs.

“It is a vote for Iraq, not for sects,” said Salih
al-Mutlak, the head of the Iraqi Front for National Dialogue.

“We want a national Iraq, not a sectarian one.”

Either way, analysts say it probably will not matter. After
the results are in, they expect Sunnis lists to unite as one
block anyway in an effort to give the community clout.

“Sunnis will form alliances later, it doesn’t matter if
they are on different lists now,” said Baghdad University’s
Habib.

“Even though they do not have a united leadership, they are
all determined to make up for their absence at the last
elections…Before, Shi’ites and Kurds proved their presence,
now it is the Sunnis’ turn.”