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Israeli Plans Gaza Ground Operation, Fears Hamas Offensive - Paper

Posted on: Monday, 2 January 2006, 15:00 CST

Israeli security concerns stemming from assessments of Hamas's intentions, and the possibility of an Israeli army ground operation in Gaza have been reported by the web version of Israeli paper Ma'ariv in reports carried on 1 January.

A report by Amir Rappaport, Amit Kohen and Felix Frisch headlined "Hamas feared to plan terror, Qassam offensive" said: "The defence establishment fears that Hamas has prepared a terror offensive that is unprecedented in scale and will carry it out when the period of calm ("tahadiyah") ends. According to the assessments, the organization has used the last year to prepare dozens of possible attacks with the aim of carrying out many of them simultaneously and creating a 'hellish effect'.

"Hamas committed itself to a cessation of attacks in the agreement that was signed with Abu-Mazin [Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas] at the beginning of the year. This agreement was valid until the end of 2005; in other words, it expired last night. At the weekend, the defence establishment monitored statements by elements from all terrorist organizations in order to learn what their positions were on the day after the tahadiyah. The main focus of attention was Hamas , the only organization that honoured the calm almost completely. Most of the terrorist attacks in the last year have been carried out by Islamic Jihad, which is responsible for murdering 24 Israelis.

"The fact that Hamas has not perpetrated attacks has given its members a kind of immunity, since Israel has only been conducting a hunt for terrorist elements that have been engaged in planning immediate attacks. The concern that has emerged from the updated intelligence assessments is that Hamas has been exploiting the lengthy period to prepare explosive devices, recruit suicide bombers and boost its arsenal of Qassam rockets. According to the assessments, the organization has also exploited the IDF's [Israel Defence Forces] departure from the Philadelphi Route to increase the smuggling of weapons from Egypt.

"The defence establishment fears that the result of Hamas's arming will be very serious, and some scenarios speak of attempts by the organization to carry out dozens of attacks and fire Qassam missiles at the same time. In the period of calm, the IDF and Shin Bet, for their part, prepared contingency plans for action against Hamas the moment that its people wash their hands of the tahadiyah.

"Although Hamas has not declared that it will continue to honour the calm, the defence establishment believes that it does not intend to renew the attacks before the PNA elections on 25 January, in which it is running. 'There's no doubt that after the elections, Hamas will have far fewer reasons to continue the calm,' a security official said.

"In contrast to Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah have declared an end to the calm and their intention to carry out attacks. The defence establishment has not been moved by the threats. "They didn't honour the tahadiyah throughout the last year in any case, and that applies in particular to Islamic Jihad, which perpetrated a series of suicide attacks," said a senior security official.

A report by Amir Buhbut headlined "IDF readying for ground operation in case of escalation" said: "Only last week, the chief of staff, Lieutenant-General Dan Halutz, made it clear that he had no intention of recommending to the political echelon to launch a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip. But the Qassam rocket fire and the ongoing anarchy in the PNA territories have led the defence minister to grant his overall approval for an operational plan for the Strip, which would include an incursion by ground forces in conjunction with aerial forces.

"With apprehension increasing in the defence establishment that Hamas may abrogate the tahadiya [calm] agreement after the elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council, and in view of the assessments that Hamas may resume the perpetration of terrorist attacks on a large scale, causing other organizations to join the fray, intensive staff work has been going on for the last few months in the Gaza Division, under the command of Brigadier-General Aviv Kokhavi, and in the Southern Command, headed by Major-General Yoav Galant.

"The plan indicates that several operations are being prepared. They are to begin with minor moves by Israeli forces to take over Qassam rocket launching areas and other strategic points that the IDF relinquished when it completed the disengagement, 'This is a large-scale plan that was created in a continuing dialogue between Galant and Kokhavi,' a senior officer in the Southern Command told NRG Ma'ariv.

"According to this officer, the plan sets out in detail an unprecedented operation for the eventuality that it should be decided to change the mode of action towards the Gaza Strip. 'The idea for this operation was based from the outset on fielding an entire division, to which regular brigades would be attached. It should be emphasized that the defence minister gave his overall approval for the plan after it was approved by Maj-Gen Galant and Chief of Staff Halutz.' The officer added that 'the IDF has to be prepared for any option and to develop its readiness and capabilities in case there is a change in the level of terrorism'. The officer stressed that 'any future large-scale measure would, of course, require the approval of the political echelon'."


Source: BBC Monitoring Middle East

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