S.Lanka’s Jaffna likely Tiger focus if war comes

By Peter Apps

COLOMBO (Reuters) – If Sri Lanka’s two-decade-old civil war
flares again, as many fear it will, Tamil Tiger rebels are
likely to launch an assault on northern Jaffna as well as
hit-and-run guerrilla attacks on supply lines, analysts say.

The Jaffna peninsula is seen by the rebels as the center of
a future Tamil homeland, but they have held it only
intermittently in the past and it is now under government
control, albeit surrounded by Tiger territory.

“Jaffna is their main focus,” said Janes Defense Weekly
analyst Iqbal Athas, referring to the Tamil Tigers.

“Certainly attacks will intensify. If you are looking at
conventional warfare, they cannot take it (Jaffna) but we are
also talking about guerrilla warfare.”

A truce between the rebels and the government has halted
major attacks for almost four years, but the peace has been
severely strained in recent weeks.

A string of claymore fragmentation mine attacks on patrols
and convoys in December killed 39 military personnel. Most
troops patrolling Jaffna say they expect war sooner rather than
later.

Observers say suspected rebel attacks have produced a
backlash by troops in the town, and now the Tigers say army
abuses are prompting civilian retaliations and could force war.

Cut off by the sea and the de facto state the rebels have
run since the 2002 truce, the 40,000 Sri Lankan troops there
may outnumber a total Tiger army seen as 20,000 strong at most,
but are solely dependent on sea and air resupply.

Sea Tiger rebels — accused of sinking a naval fast attack
boat at the weekend with the loss of 13 sailors — would be
likely to hit sea supply hard if war came, analysts say, while
the heavily defended Palaly airbase is also seen as vulnerable.

VULNERABLE RUNWAY

“All you need to do is damage the runway or the fuel
tanks,” said Athas. “The army holds the peninsula, undoubtedly,
but how much control do they really have when you consider how
many grenades and claymore mines have been smuggled there.”

The army says most of the enclave’s residents support them,
but in reality most analysts say Tiger support seems strong.

Some believe that if the rebels were able to take the town
– a massive undertaking that would be likely to incur heavy
civilian and combat casualties — they might sue for peace.

“It will be short and sharp,” said Jehan Perera of the
non-partisan National Peace Council. “There is no enthusiasm on
the government side for a long war.”

Some analysts and diplomats say neither side would gain
much from a war, and while there might be battles of attrition,
the front lines would barely move. They believe the rebels have
been launching attacks to bolster their position before talks.

“Very little would be achieved by military means,” said
Control Risks Group analyst Maria Kuusisto. “The positions are
very fixed. The LTTE has its strongholds in the jungle and the
government its strongholds in the cities and along roads. Very
little movement would take place.”

Analysts say both sides are desperate not to be seen as the
first to end the ceasefire.

Even if neither side officially withdraws from the truce,
any new widespread conflict would be likely to see Nordic
ceasefire monitors pull out and aid workers abandon some relief
projects launched after the Dec, 2004 tsunami slammed into the
east coast.

And if war comes, many fear the military would resort to
aerial bombing while the rebels might send suicide bombers
again into the capital, Colombo.

Previous assaults have killed or wounded political leaders,
hit the central bank and the twin-towered World Trade Center
and, in the case of a 2001 attack on the international airport,
destroyed half of Sri Lanka’s airline fleet.

But any concerted bombing campaign in the south would be
likely to strengthen international support for the government.
Sri Lanka already has some training exchanges with the U.S.
Army, but some diplomats say this could increase if war
returns.

“Most support would be only weapons or money — certainly
no fighting troops,” said National Peace Council’s Perera. “But
you could see some technical advisers coming over.”

(Additional reporting by Ranga Sirilal)