Shi’ite bloc short of Iraq parliament majority: source

By Mariam Karouny

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – The Islamist Shi’ite Alliance bloc will
fall short of retaining its parliamentary majority after last
month’s election, according to an almost final tally of seats
in the chamber obtained by Reuters on Friday.

With six of 275 seats yet to be allocated, the Alliance and
their present Kurdish coalition partners were also one seat shy
of the two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution,
figures provided by source at the Electoral Commission showed.

Final results are expected next week following a review of
procedures by international observers responding to complaints
of fraud by minority Sunni Arab and secular parties. No major
change in the results from the December 15 vote is expected.

Sunni Arab parties, which boycotted last January’s vote for
the interim assembly, have been disappointed at the results but
appear ready to take part in a grand coalition government.

The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), formed by the Supreme
Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), the Dawa
party and followers of nationalist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, have
129 seats on the present tally, nine short of a majority and 11
fewer than in the interim assembly.

The main Kurdish bloc, which rules with the Shi’ites, has
52 seats on the present count, down from 75 at present; a
certain fluidity in allegiances has made precise calculations
of voting strength in the interim assembly difficult.

In the outgoing parliament, the Shi’ite Alliance and the
Kurds were able to combine to produce a two-thirds majority of
182 seats but that may not be possible in the new legislature,
depending on the allocation of the final handful of seats under
a complex procedure intended to favor smaller parties.

The main Sunni Arab bloc, the Iraqi Accordance Front, would
receive 42 seats, and another Sunni grouping with which it
might ally, the National Dialogue Front led by Saleh al-Mutlak,
would have 10 or 11 seats, the Electoral Commission source
said.

ALLAWI LOSES

The other main grouping, the cross-sectarian secular Iraqi
National List led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, had 25
seats on the provisional count, 15 less than at present.

Disappointed with that result after a highly visible public
campaign, it is not yet clear whether Allawi and his allies
will take part in negotiations on joining a new coalition.

Among other groups who have won seats, the Kurdish Islamic
Alliance had five seats according to the latest figures,
Risaliyoon, a party also linked to Sadr, had two, as had the
Reconciliation and Liberation bloc led by Sunni politician
Mishaan al-Jibouri. The Shi’ite Patriotic Rafidain group and
the Turkish-speaking Turkmen Front won one seat each.

The source said the bulk of the six remaining seats would
be most likely allocated to such smaller parties.

Among the more than 200 groups that failed to win a seat on
December 15 was that led by Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad
Chalabi, a controversial, high-profile figure, the electoral
source said.

Seats provisionally break down as follows:

United Iraqi Alliance 129

Kurdish Alliance 52

Iraqi Accordance Front 42

Iraqi National List 25

Iraqi Front for National Dialogue 10

Kurdish Islamic Alliance 5

Risaliyoon 2

Reconciliation and Liberation Bloc 2

Patriotic Rafidain Party 1

Iraqi Turkmen Front 1

Still unallocated 6

TOTAL 275