Sh’ite divisions may hamstring Iraq prime minister

By Michael Georgy – Analysis

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Division and infighting within Iraq’s
ruling Islamist Shi’ite alliance could leave its nominee for
prime minister politically paralyzed as he tries to rescue a
country torn apart by sectarian fighting.

After weeks of heated debate, the United Iraqi Alliance
(UIA), the biggest bloc in parliament, resorted to a vote
before nominating incumbent Ibrahim al-Jaafari as prime
minister of the next government, two months after December 15
elections.

Jaafari, a leader of the Dawa party, won by only one vote
over Adel Abdul Mehdi, a senior figure in rival party the
Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI).
With such a slim mandate, stitching together a cabinet could
prove a huge struggle, further straining relations with the UIA
bloc.

Jaafari’s efforts to form a government will need
sensitivity as he tries to keep Shi’ite factions happy, while
satisfying Kurds who have accused him of monopolizing power and
reaching out to Arab Sunnis who are key to defusing the Sunni
insurgency.

Political analysts say the cautious Jaafari must make bold
decisions that will send a strong signal to factions inside his
own alliance as well as Sunnis, who have gained 58 of the 275
seats in parliament after boycotting last January’s election.

“Jaafari needs to create a government of technocrats. Most
of all you need them in the key places such as the Interior
Ministry. Secularists who have no sectarian agenda,” said Hazim
al-Nu’amy, a professor at Baghdad’s Mustansiriya University.

That won’t be easy for a leader whose approach to crisis
during his first, 10-month term was quiet diplomacy followed by
sweeping government promises and little progress.

Control of the Interior Ministry is likely to be one of the
toughest battles as Jaafari shapes Iraq’s first full-term
government since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

It is controlled by SCIRI, the pro-Iranian party linked to
the Badr Brigades militia, which Sunnis accuse of running death
squads sanctioned by the Shi’ite-led government. The government
denies the accusations.

Jaafari has vowed to crack down on abuses but that could
require politically risky action against militias tied to
members of his Shi’ite alliance.

Highlighting the problems ahead, government spokesman Laith
Kubba said this week that the current political system which
allows parties to carve up ministries makes it impossible for
Jaafari to take control of the Interior Ministry.

SUNNIS KEY TO STABILITY

Loosening the grip of Shi’ite and Kurdish parties on
ministries is crucial to winning over Sunnis, who accuse SCIRI
of pursuing a sectarian policy of giving the best positions to
its members and squeezing out minority Sunnis.

SCIRI, highly unpopular among many Sunnis for its close
ties to former foe Shi’ite Iran, denies the accusations.

Some of its members play down splits in the Shi’ite
alliance, which also includes cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a former
rebel leader who has rebelled against U.S. and Iraqi troops.

Jaafari is backed by Sadr but the young firebrand has
always been unpredictable.

“There are many difficulties but I think we can overcome
them. Remember this was an interim government and there are
problems. This is not Switzerland,” said Reda Jiwaad Taki, a
member of SCIRI’s political committee.

Jaafari, for his part, has offered little hard evidence of
how he intends to tackle daily suicide bombings and shootings
and revive a battered economy that few investors will touch.

“We are going to continue to build the security forces and
stabilize the political situation. We are going to work on
forming a strong government to enhance their performance as
they work as a group,” he told a news conference this week.

His promises provide little comfort to people like Nazhan
Alwaan in the town of Balad north of Baghdad.

After gunmen killed eight of his relatives on Tuesday,
including his five-year-old nephew, Alwaan concluded that he
was targeted simply because he was a Shi’ite.

“We don’t have any relations with the Americans, we are not
contractors, we don’t know the police or army, so what else
could it be?” he asked.

Sectarian tensions have been fueled in part by debate over
the constitution. The Sunni minority want amendments made to
sections on federalism they fear give Shi’ites and Kurds too
much power and control of Iraq’s oil riches.

A strong central government may be what Jaafari needs to
help stabilize the country. But it may not be possible under
the existing constitution.

“All observers are critical that it creates a very weak
central government. The local governments enjoy semi-autonomy
and there is the question of spreading revolts,” Lakhdar
Brahimi, U.N. architect of the political process leading to
elections in Iraq, told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper.

“All of this could lead to the breakup of the country and a
continuation of present divisions instead of ending them.”