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IRAQ; Descending into Civil War?

Posted on: Friday, 24 February 2006, 15:00 CST

By FOSTER

The horrific aftermath of Wednesday's bombing of a Shiite Muslim shrine in Iraq has become a major test of the new Iraqi government's influence and maturity. The violence produced by that act of insanity is also an important test of the professionalism of Iraq's fledgling security forces. Finally, the post-bombing violence raises a grim possibility the American people need to think about: the possibility of full-fledged civil war in Iraq.

The bombing in Samarra was almost certainly intended to widen the divide between Iraq's religious factions, especially its Shiite and Sunni Muslims. At least in the short run, it achieved that wretched objective as Iraqi Shiites, intent on revenge, targeted Sunni mosques, clerics and other targets.

Before the bombing, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, warned Iraq's leaders and people that sectarian strife threatened the future of the country. The latest events underlined the importance of Khalilzad's words. If Iraq is ever to become democratic, stable and prosperous, its people need to put aside religious divisions and work for the good of the entire country.

The initial response of Iraqi government leaders in meeting this test of responsible governance was encouraging. There was some inevitable finger-pointing and name-calling, but Iraq's major political and religious leaders issued appeals for restraint, not calls for revenge.

The early response of Iraq's security forces was less encouraging. Iraqi army soldiers who had been called out to stop militia battles and sectarian reprisals in Baghdad stood idly nearby, much as they have in the past when called to fight insurgents. This shows U.S. trainers have a long way to go before Iraq can claim to have a professional national security force.

Given the worsening sectarian violence, it is not unrealistic to speculate about the possibility that events will spin out of control, leading Iraq downward to civil war. What should be the U.S. response to such a calamity? Can we stand by as Iraqi factions slaughter each other, much as ethnic factions slaughtered each other in Rwanda in 1994? But, as a practical matter, wouldn't U.S. intervention in an Iraqi civil war only worsen it and put Americans in the cross hairs?

The United States got involved in Iraq nearly three years ago chiefly because it did not have an informed awareness of what it was getting into. The U.S. ought to not make the same mistake now and must think realistically about what it will do if the situation worsens. And, yes, U.S. withdrawal has to be an option.

Copyright 2006, Journal Sentinel Inc. All rights reserved. (Note: This notice does not apply to those news items already copyrighted and received through wire services or other media.)

Source: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

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