No security threat in N.Korea missile test: analysts

By Jon Herskovitz

SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea’s test-firing of two
short-range missiles was more about checking performance than
rattling sabers during a stalemate in talks on ending
Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, analysts said on Thursday.

The White House confirmed reports North Korea had fired the
missiles on Wednesday, and U.S. officials said they proved the
country’s nuclear programs posed a threat to the region.

But analysts said the tests did not constitute a major
threat to stability and if Pyongyang had wanted to send a
strong signal it could have wheeled out far bigger missiles.

The tests came not long after a rare meeting between U.S.
and North Korean officials in New York, where they discussed a
U.S. crackdown on Pyongyang’s assets, which the North wants
ended before it will return to six-country nuclear talks.

North Korea fired the two short-range missiles from its
east coast and they probably dropped into sea, about 100 km (60
miles) away, the South Korean daily JoongAng Ilbo reported on
Thursday, citing a government source.

Initial reports said the tests were over a shorter distance
elsewhere and just on land. A senior Bush administration
official said the two missiles did not leave North Korean
territory.

The missiles had a range of about 120 km and were similar
to a missile the North test-fired in May 2005. That was a
modified Soviet surface-to-surface missile, the newspaper said.

“The government sees this as testing to boost missile
performance,” the source was quoted as saying. Japan played
down the tests, saying they did not pose a threat to its
security.

Despite the tests, South Korea, which is within range of
the missiles, let North Korean ships into harbor to load
fertilizer aid to help the North’s spring planting.

Analysts said the North ran periodic tests of its shorter
range missiles and the greatest threat to regional stability
was its nascent arsenal of intermediate- and long-range
ballistic missiles, which might eventually be used for nuclear
weapons.

WHY DIDN’T THEY GO BALLISTIC?

“If the North Koreans really wanted to send a signal, why
not do a ballistic missile test?” Daniel Pinkston, director of
the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for
Nonproliferation Studies in California, said by telephone.

In Washington on Tuesday, the head of the U.S. military in
South Korea told a Senate hearing North Korea was ready to
deploy ballistic missiles that could reach Alaska.

Proliferation experts believe North Korea is still some
time away from building a nuclear warhead small enough to be
mounted on a missile. The accuracy of its mid-range missiles
was also suspect while its long-range missiles are believed to
be in development and not yet launched.

“We attach significance to it (the test) because it has the
words ‘North Korea’ and ‘missile’,” Ralph Cossa, president of
the Pacific Forum CSIS think tank based in Hawaii, said by
telephone.

“The North Koreans would be happy for us to attach a
political message but I am not sure that was their intention.”

Cossa did not think the test was intended as North Korean
saber-rattling to coincide with the talks between U.S. Treasury
officials and senior North Korean diplomat Ri Gun over
Washington’s suspicions about North Korean illicit activities
such as counterfeiting and drug trafficking.

“Both sides want to demonstrate that they are not the
problem,” Cossa said.

Analysts said the crackdown talks were not likely to lead
to any breakthrough but they could provide political cover that
would allow North Korea to return to the stalled discussions
among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United
States.

Ri told South Korea’s Hankyoreh newspaper he would like to
see the United States and North Korea set up a separate body to
discuss Washington’s suspicions.

“We can exchange intelligence on financial crimes and
devise measures,” Ri was quoted as saying.

(With additional reporting by Jack Kim and Tokyo bureau)