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Russian Expert Sees "No Good Outcome" for Russia Over Iranian Nuclear Issue

Posted on: Thursday, 16 March 2006, 18:00 CST

Excerpt from report by Nadezhda Sorokina and commentary by Georgiy Mirskiy, chief research associate at the World Economy and International Relations Institute: "Tehran confuses world community" by Russian newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta on 14 March, subheadings as published:

The proposal to set up a Russian-Iranian uranium enrichment joint enterprise on Russian territory is still on the negotiating table.

This statement, which was made by the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, repudiates the statement by this country's Foreign Ministry on ending the dialogue with Russia over the joint enterprise. [Passage omitted]

Commentary

Doctor of Historical Sciences Georgiy Mirskiy, chief research associate at the Russian Academy of Sciences World Economy and International Relations Institute:

The Iranian leadership's contradictory statements are a continuation of the game of cat and mouse. Tehran is holding the thread - first it pulls it then it releases it.

The Iranian authorities understand that referring the Iranian dossier to the UN Security Council has benefited those who want to avoid a final and clear decision. They are in the majority.

Russia is interested more than everybody in seeing this situation end without sanctions on Iran. First, it does not want to lose multibillion contracts linked to the Iranian economy's development. Second, our leadership understands the kind of international prestige Russia can gain if it succeeds in preventing a catastrophic development of the situation. Third, Moscow realizes that sanctions will not get us anywhere. Conversely, the Iranians will be pleased with sanctions. They will use them to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [NPT], to sever relations with the IAEA completely, and to relinquish all its obligations. As a result Iran will start out on the road towards developing a nuclear bomb. In order to prevent this, out diplomatic service is showing superhuman patience, quite often ending up in a humiliating position.

Other countries do not have three such factors. Of course, nobody wants war or sanctions. European countries' economies could also suffer because of this.

Only the United States wants to impose sanctions since it would suffer less economically than others because of this. The Americans have no economic interests in Iran. They believe that Tehran will make concessions under pressure from the world community. In this respect the US position differs from the approaches of European countries and Russia.

Iran has now set out on a road that will lead it to sanctions. But Tehran does not fear them, just as it does not fear war, which could lead to a crazy increase in oil prices. But as we know, nobody in the world wants this. That is why the Iranian authorities believe that they are holding all the trump cards.

In this situation there is no good outcome for Russia. If Moscow votes for sanctions or abstains from voting, it will lose lucrative contracts in Iran. If it votes against sanctions, the world community will regard it as aiding and abetting Iran to develop a nuclear bomb.

Source: BBC Monitoring Middle East

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