Young India hopes to reap population boom benefits

By Krittivas Mukherjee

MUMBAI — In the mid-1970s, India was so worried about its explosive population growth that policemen and officials traveled to villages to sterilize men, who hid in sugar cane fields or climbed trees to avoid vasectomies.

School teachers, under pressure to meet family planning targets given to them by the government, forced fathers of their students to sterilize, before a public outcry drove authorities to abandon these desperate attempts.

Nearly three decades on, a new, non-coercive policy — emphasizing education of women and health care rather than demographic control — has thrown up surprising results.

Population growth has slowed from 4 percent in the 1960s to about 1.7 percent now, fueling hopes of stable growth by the middle of the century in a country with the world’s second largest population at 1.1 billion people.

Some experts predict population growth could turn out to be a boon to the economy, one of the fastest growing in the world.

Since half of India’s population is younger than 25, it gives the country a potential edge over China, where an aging population — the result of a one-child policy — could slow its economy by 2030, they said.

"It is an advantage for India now because the country is entering the demographic dividend phase while China is exiting it," said Bikram Sen, a former Indian census director.

Demographic dividend refers to a period — usually 20 to 30 years — when a greater proportion of people are working, which cuts spending on dependants, aiding economic growth.

A DELICATE ISSUE

India is hoping by the time this dividend phase ends, around 2045, it will have achieved a stable and balanced population.

There is a catch however.

"Whether India can benefit from its young population will depend on economic development and equitable social development," said A. R. Nanda, executive director of the Population Foundation of India, a research agency.

Education will play an important role.

"Education is the key to a better economy and a controlled population," Sen said. "Until now, the world blamed India for its huge population, but now it could envy it."

Population control has long been a delicate issue in India where politicians are wary of promoting family planning too vigorously, mindful of the lessons of history.

In the 1970s, the government of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, which ordered the sterilization program, was thrown out in elections — her worst defeats coming in areas where the family planning campaign was robustly implemented.

In a country blighted by decades of poverty and illiteracy, many people, especially in rural India, still see an extra child as an extra pair of hands.

"People with large families are usually the ones who are outside the formal economy," said Nanda. "For them each child is an economic asset."

However, this concept has strained city resources as migrants from the countryside crowd in, looking for work.

Some experts worry the still rising population could rein in economic growth of around 8 percent a year.

The government’s new population policy helped bring down the total fertility rate — or the number of children a woman gives birth to during her lifetime — from nearly six in the 1960s to the present three, but even that number is still high, and means an additional 15.5 million people each year.

"ONLY LIP SERVICE"

Some experts complain the government’s policy is too hit-and-miss. Planners push for a "two-child" norm but the policy is rarely implemented strictly.

Efforts to forge a coherent policy have also been hampered by graft and a lack of knowledge.

Millions of condoms distributed free to combat AIDS and encourage family planning, are used for waterproofing roofs, reinforcing roads, making toys, polishing saris and even covering military guns and tanks from dust.

"We are only paying lip service to population control," said P.N. Mari Bhat, director of the International Institute of Population Studies, a leading population think-tank.

"There is some progress in terms of control, but there are regional demographic imbalances wherein the population growth of one region has been negated by a fall elsewhere."

India’s last census in 2001 revealed a sharp demographic divide between poorer northern states and economically advanced southern states, where there has been a sharp decrease in the rate of population growth in the last decade.

Experts say the demographic imbalances could fan regional tensions as people move from the poorer heavily populated areas to richer southern India.

Imbalances could also fan political tensions. Last year, a leading Hindu hard-liner angered women and Muslims by pressing Hindus to have as many children as possible to avoid being swamped by Muslims.

More than 80 percent of secular India’s people are Hindus, around 13 percent Muslims and the rest Christians, Sikhs and other minorities. The Muslim community grew almost 30 percent between 1991 and 2001, according to census data, while the number of Hindus rose 20 percent.

"We are on the right track," Sen said. "But the challenge is to put effective birth control measures in the northern states."