Mexico leftist ahead in presidential race: poll

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexican leftist candidate Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador had a five-point lead in an opinion poll
on Thursday, the latest survey showing him pulling away from
his conservative rival for a presidential election on July 2.

The poll in Milenio newspaper gave Lopez Obrador, the
former mayor of Mexico City, 35 percent support, ahead of
former energy minister Felipe Calderon on 30 percent. The
leftist’s lead was three points in the previous Milenio poll on
June 13.

Most polls now show Lopez Obrador, who promises to give
priority to Mexico’s poor, leading in the final phase of
campaigning but some still have Calderon ahead.

Sensing he might be near victory. Lopez Obrador has tried
this week to calm nerves, denying conservative claims he will
overspend on welfare programs and take Mexico back to the days
of economic crisis in the 1980s and 90s.

“How am I going to fulfill my promise to improve families’
incomes by 20 percent?” he said in a television advert on
Wednesday night. “Above all I tell you that I will not get the
country into debt or raise taxes. It’s not necessary.”

The leftist has been favorite for most of the last three
years to succeed President Vicente Fox but he fell behind
Calderon in April and May after the conservative launched media
spots accusing him of being a dangerous populist.

Calderon has slipped back after allegations that his
brother-in-law avoided paying taxes and won elusive government
contracts when the candidate was in Fox’s cabinet.

Most of the polls that show Calderon on top nevertheless
have his lead diminishing, including a survey by U.S. firm
Zogby International this week.

Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party,
or PRI, which ran Mexico for 71 years until 2000, was in third
place on 29.6 percent in Thursday’s poll.

The PRI will win more votes for Congressional elections on
July 2 than Calderon’s National Action Party and Lopez
Obrador’s Party of the Democratic Revolution, the poll said.

Thirty-two percent of those interviewed said the leftist
would do a better job fighting poverty compared to 18 percent
for Calderon. Lopez Obrador was also seen as more likely to
create jobs than his opponent.

The survey was taken between June 16-20 among 2,000 people
and had a maximum margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.