N.Korea may have fuel for 13 nuclear weapons: study

By Carol Giacomo, Diplomatic Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – During President George W. Bush’s
administration, North Korea has gone from having enough
plutonium for one or two nuclear weapons to having enough for
as many as 13, a study released on Monday said.

It concluded that the reclusive communist state, whose
threat to test a long-range ballistic missile has spread
concern in Washington and in Asia, could have more than 17 such
weapons by the time Bush leaves office in early 2009.

The study, authored by former U.N. weapons inspector David
Albright, was based on analysis of satellite imagery indicating
activity at the five megawatt nuclear reactor at Yongbyon,
media reports and statements by North Korean officials.

It said Pyongyang probably did not have enough plutonium
stock for its own deterrence and so is unlikely to sell it.

But if production continued at current levels, North
Korea’s cash-strapped leaders may decide in a “few years” that
they have enough for their own use and can market the excess.

“We conclude that North Korea is estimated to now have
enough separated plutonium to develop a credible nuclear
arsenal, on the order of 4 to 13 nuclear weapons and similar in
size to South Africa’s nuclear weapons arsenal in the late
1980s at the height of its effort,” Albright and co-author Paul
Brannan said.

The Institute for Science and International Security
(ISIS), of which Albright is the president, issued the report.

It found that North Korea’s 50 megawatt reactor, which is
still being built, had had no significant construction activity
in recent months. When finished the reactor would increase
North Korea’s plutonium production tenfold.

Washington officially maintains Pyongyang has plutonium for
at least one or two weapons and U.S. officials unofficially
have put that figure at as many as nine.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

But Albright said “since the start of the Bush
Administration and dissolution of the Agreed Framework, North
Korea has gone from having enough separated plutonium for
perhaps one or two nuclear weapons to enough for between 4 and
13 weapons. By the end of the Bush Administration, North Korea
could have enough plutonium for 8 to 17 nuclear weapons.”

The Agreed Framework, signed with the United States in
1994, committed Pyongyang to freeze its plutonium program in
exchange for two light-water nuclear reactors and supplementary
fuel oil supplies. The deal fell apart within two years of Bush
taking office.

Key Senate Democrats, concerned along with some Republicans
that Bush has ignored the threat posed by North Korea as he
grappled with Iraq and Iran, have pressed the administration to
declassify its current National Intelligence Estimate on
Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile capabilities so updated
information can be shared with the public.

But on June 18, Director of National Intelligence John
Negroponte denied the request, saying he would have to remove
so much data to protect sources and methods as to render the
unclassified version “meaningless.”

It would also “risk alerting the North Korean regime to
intelligence gaps in our understanding of their programs,
activities, capabilities and intentions,” Negroponte said in
the letter obtained by Reuters.

In his report, Albright said little was known about the
North’s ability to make a nuclear weapon, “although it is
assessed as likely able to build a crude nuclear warhead for
its (medium-range) Nodong missile.”

However, “there is little evidence to suggest that North
Korea is capable of making a nuclear warhead light enough for
the Taepodong-2 missile,” the report said, referring to the
long-range missile said by U.S. officials to be sitting on the
North Korean launch pad waiting to be tested.