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Castro handover tests Cuban succession plan

Posted on: Wednesday, 2 August 2006, 13:29 CDT

By Anthony Boadle

HAVANA (Reuters) - Hopes held by exiles and other die-hard opponents that Fidel Castro's failing health would trigger a crisis of confidence in Cuban communism have been dampened by the apparently smooth succession plan set off by his illness.

The immediate appointment of his defense minister brother Raul as provisional president and calm coverage by state media have sent a strong message that the communist system will go on, even without its 79-year-old founder, Cuba-watchers say.

Still, some believe a smooth transition over the longer term will be difficult to achieve, given the force of Castro's charisma and doubts about his 75-year-old brother's leadership skills.

"This is the one chapter in Cuban history that they've really got to get right, if they're going to survive," said a U.S. intelligence official in Washington who asked not to be identified.

The official added: "What these guys are trying to show, and it's an uphill fight, is that this is an institutionalized system when in fact it has been a personality-driven system in large measure."

Information about Castro's condition is scarce two days after the announcement that he was stepping aside temporarily, giving rise to rumors that he may already be dead or is taking the chance to hold a succession "dress rehearsal."

SMART MOVE?

Some analysts say it could well be a smart move by Castro to test the resilience of his succession plan while he is still around and in charge, even from a hospital bed.

Details of his health are a state secret, which Cuban authorities say is because of the ever-present threat of U.S. hostility.

Castro was quoted by state media on Tuesday as saying he was stable, but that a verdict on his recovery would not come for "many days."

"It cannot be excluded that he has undergone a medical procedure that, albeit inevitable, is part of a plan to devise a more effective succession strategy," said Paolo Spadoni, a visiting professor at Rollins College in Florida.

"Fidel could be offered the unprecedented opportunity to monitor potential developments on the island and the reaction of the Cuban people to his absence before he actually passes away and when he still has a chance to regain control."

Some analysts believe Castro has kept Cuba's system together through sheer force of personality, despite a ramshackle economy, and that the competent but less charismatic Raul will be unable to hold it together.

Two thirds of Cubans were born after Castro's 1959 revolution and they know no other leader, or political system.

Some Havana residents said on Wednesday that security personnel had been put on alert, including rapid deployment brigades used in the past to quell riots, but the streets of the capital were calm.

"My gut tells me that this is part of a long planned transition to Raul Castro which the Cuba government has been hinting at and moving toward over the last several months if not years," U.S. Senator Mel Martinez, a Florida Republican who fled Cuba as a child, told CNN.

The United States has a detailed plan for how to help Cuba move toward democracy and a free-market economy post-Castro.

But U.S. officials were not surprised a transition was developing as the Cuba government planned, rather than according to the American playbook.

"It's no surprise that we remain standing by," said a senior State Department official, who asked not to be named because his comments went beyond the U.S. public response to Castro's surgery.

"We can't activate our plan while a dictator is imposing a dictatorship on the Cuban people. You cannot impose democracy," he added.

(Additional reporting by David Morgan and Saul Hudson in Washington)

Source: REUTERS

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