Russia Hands Bush Team a Rare Chance at Success ; A Squabble Between Iran and Russia Creates an Opening for Diplomacy.

Many anti-war activists say without hesitation that they fear the Bush administration more than the government of Iran. In this view, the primary concern is not Iran’s troubling nuclear program, but that the president will attempt another regime change by force.

While it’s true that the president is not above saber rattling when it comes to Iran, there is little evidence that the administration has the desire or the means to invade. The United States has had a much more diplomatic posture toward Iran than it did toward Iraq. Even if that weren’t the case, the U.S. military is already stretched to capacity.

The Bush administration does, however, pose a concern relative to Iran. The acquisition of a nuclear weapon by Iran is a serious threat. It is one that could easily draw the United States into the war that peace activists fear. The real worry here is that the president and his team lack the ability and credibility to use diplomacy to get the Iranians to halt their pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Fortunately for the president and for us, sometimes it really is better to be lucky than good.

Russia is in a squabble with Iran over its nuclear program. The Russians are helping the Iranians develop nuclear power in exchange for some much-needed U.S. currency. While the details are not clear, reports indicate that the parties are feuding over the payments, and Russia is withholding delivery of nuclear fuel.

Even more encouraging is the fact that the disagreement has reached the point where Russia has elevated its public concern over Iran’s fuel-enrichment activities, which many fear could be an attempt to build a bomb.

All this plays well into the hands of U.S. diplomats, who are trying to get the U.N. Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran. The Russians can veto such a resolution, and in the past their commercial ties to Iran have made progress at the United Nations difficult.

This development presents Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice with an opportunity, but success is hardly guaranteed.

The United States made an awkward case for using force against Iraq. It failed to recognize and exploit a window of opportunity in Mideast peace talks following the death of Yasser Arafat. And it has managed to back North Korea into a corner, accelerating its militarization and nuclear weapons program.

Now the Russians have handed Bush and his team a chance to get something right. Let’s hope they don’t blow it again.

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