Too Close to Call As France Prepares to Go to the Polls ; FRENCH ELECTIONS
By Anne Penketh
France goes to the polls tomorrow to choose a successor to President Jacques Chirac. Two main candidates, the conservative former minister Nicolas Sarkozy, and the Socialist former minister Segolene Royal, have remained steady as the most popular choice to go forward into the decisive second round after tomorrow’s first round narrows the field.
But experienced French pollsters and commentators point out that given the high number of undecided voters on the eve of the election – roughly one third of the 44 million-strong electorate – there could still be a big surprise that could catapult one of the other two candidates into the second round. On the eve of the election, with the polls pointing in different directions, the first round is too close to call.
Francois Bayrou, a centrist former education minister campaigning for an end to the left/right divide that has traditionally po- larised French political life, and the far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, are the jokers in the pack who have created a sense of suspense about the outcome.
The only thing on which the opinion polls agree is the pecking order of the candidates’ popularity. M. Sarkozy, President Chirac’s former hardline interior minister, has consistently been in first place, with Mme Royal, who was a minister under Francois Mitterrand, in second. M. Bayrou and M. Le Pen come in third and fourth, according to the polls.
The last two opinion polls published late last night, ahead of an election poll embargo, suggest M. Sarkozy will be the next president of France. A BVA survey forecast a 52-48 per cent win for M. Sarkozy over Mme Royal, slightly down on the previous poll. The final Ipsos survey showed no change, with M. Sarkozy prevailing 53.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent.
Earlier, a CSA poll for Le Parisien gave the run-off ballot on 6 May as a dead heat. If the polls are reliable – and in previous elections they were not – that should mean that the second round would be a traditional battle between the right and the left. But experts say that M. Le Pen’s vote is likely to be underestimated – as it was in 2002 when he shocked the country by securing a place in the run-off against M. Chirac. Equally, M. Le Pen could drain votes from M. Sarkozy, who could suffer from a campaign focusing on his divisive personality.
Mme Royal could be vulnerable meanwhile if voters decided to switch to the centrist candidate M. Bayrou, who could benefit from an “anti-system” protest vote. Brice Teinturier, of the polling agency Sofres, told Le Monde that “we cannot rule out a reversal of the curves” of Mme Royal and M. Bayrou, putting the Socialist candidate in danger. However, Socialist party managers remain confident that their candidate stands to benefit from an expected high turnout as the French consider the stakes in voting for a president from a new generation who will turn the page on 12 years of economic decline.
They sense that unlike the 2002 poll, voters will shun the extreme positions incarnated by M. Le Pen in favour of a clear “choice of society”, as offered by M. Sarkozy on the right and Mme Royal on the left.
“It is a vote for change. People know we can’t carry on like this,” said a member of Mme Royal’s campaign team, the “Blairite” senator Jean-Marie Bockel. “But they are afraid of being the victims themselves.”
How will they vote?
JONATHAN CHOQUEL, 34
Journalist/ podcaster. Segolene Royal
“For me, the best thing about politics is change. If the same party stays in power for years and years then I don’t think that’s true democracy. Segolene represents another form of change as well, as she’s a woman after so many men.”
NICOLAS CENNAC, 28
Journalist. Bayrou
“First, I believe that Bayrou’s idea for the coalition between left and right could work very well, and second, while all three main candidates have some good ideas, Segolene doesn’t convince me, I find her too opportunist, and Sarkozy is too aggressive.”
EUGNIE MELBOUCI, 31
Sales representative. Undecided
“I’m more tempted by Sarkozy than Segolene, but even more so by Bayrou. I like his idea of a coalition between the left and the right. In the past I’ve voted on the right, but I don’t really think any of them can change France. Whoever wins has to have charisma, so maybe Sarkozy.”
ANNE-SOPHIE MEYER, 27
Archivist. Undecided
“I think I’ll vote on the right, but other than that I really haven’t decided. I’ll vote for one of the three main candidates, but I don’t think any of their solutions are the right ones. Bayrou’s idea for a coalition is really stupid, you can’t try and please everyone.”
JOEL MOULET, 69
Former sound engineer. Francois Bayrou
“We’ve had enough of extremes. I believe Bayrou could beat Sarkozy in the second round, but I don’t think he’ll get through so I’ll vote then for Segolene. I don’t think Sarkozy’s a fascist, but he does say things that don’t do him any favours.”
SIMON LAMOURET, 21
Student. Jose Bove, anti-globa-lisation candidate
“Bove is the only candidate who offers a really coherent alternative to the received ideas of ultra-capitalism and productivism imposed on us by the media. He is the only one to talk sense about the environment and the Third World.”
The race to be President
After weeks of campaigning France’s election still hangs in the balance
Nicolas Sarkozy, 52
Candidate for the centre-right Union pour un Mouvement Populaire. The pro-business former interior minister has campaigned for lower taxes and tighter immigration controls
Segolene Royal, 53
Candidate for the Parti Socialiste (PS). The former education and environment minister promises “order and fairness” and a “win-win” France in which social groups work in harmony
Francois Bayrou, 55
Candidate of the centrist Union pour la Democratie Francaise (UDF). The former education minister promises a new coalition of the centre to reform France gently
Jean-Marie Le Pen, 78
Candidate for the far-right Front National (NF). The veteran ultra-nationalist wants to pull France out of the EU and the euro and close France’s borders to immigrants and “unfair” trade
HOW THE ELECTION WORKS
44,000,000 registered voters will decide France’s next president, who will serve for five years.
About 82 areas, including Brest, Le Havre and several towns in greater Paris, are experimenting once again this year with electronic voting machines.
The projected result will be announced on French television at 8pm local time (7pm in Britain), based on early returns from selected areas.
The first two candidates go forward to a run-off in the second round on 6 May.
The presidential election will be followed almost immediately by parliamentary elections, once again over two rounds, on June 10 and 17.
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