Raul Castro Presides Over Cuban May Day Festivities
MIAMI _ Underlining the impression that hopes for reforms in Cuba following Fidel Castro’s health crisis have now stalled amid reports of his recovery, interim leader Raul Castro silently presided over a massive May Day parade Tuesday.
The 80-year-old Fidel did not show up despite widespread speculation that he would make his first public appearance since undergoing intestinal surgery almost exactly nine months ago.
Instead there was only Raul Castro, who did not speak a word before the hundreds of thousands of people gathered at Havana’s Plaza de la Revolucion.
It was a dramatic shift from the long and blustery Castro speeches that Cubans had grown accustomed to _ Castro spoke for three hours at last year’s May Day celebration _ and underscored the uncertainty facing Cubans about who is really in charge.
“The longer Fidel is alive, the more it impedes Raul’s consolidation of power,” said Andy Gomez, a senior fellow at the University of Miami’s Institute of Cuban and Cuban-American Studies. “When you take a look at history, you see dictators that have hung on . . . It has always impacted the new person coming into play.
“The longer Fidel remains alive, the question inside the Cuban regime is going to be: Is Raul really calling the shots or is Fidel?”
Fidel Castro did not show despite widespread speculation that he would make his first public appearance since shortly before July 31 _ when the government announced that intestinal bleeding required him to temporarily turn power over to his brother, who is seen as more pragmatic and open to economic reforms.
But in recent weeks Fidel Castro’s health has appeared to improve, and some experts believe that he has now put the brakes on any reform-minded projects.
In the first months of Castro’s sickness, there was much talk about the systemic failures of the revolutionary system _ failures that Castro had long blamed on Washington or corrupt Cubans. That clamor now has dropped to a whisper. Unprecedented investigative journalism reports published in the Cuban state media for several months have stopped. The papers are back to running blistering anti-U.S. rhetoric.
And an academic commission formed to study problems with the system of socialist property _ the government owns just about everything _ recently announced it would issue a report in three years.
“Months ago they were admitting systemic problems, saying this system is not working the way it should. They are not saying that anymore,” said Brian Latell, a former top CIA Cuba analyst. “Is this Fidel’s show, or is there a hard-liner Fidelista group persuading Raul to slow all that?” Latell said it’s unclear whether Fidel is recovering and putting a stop to his brother’s projects, or hard-liners are exerting more influence on Raul.
“It may be a combination of a fear in the current leadership of repudiating policies long cherished by Fidel while he is still alive and aware,” he said.
Elizardo Sanchez, who heads the illegal but tolerated Commission on Human Rights and National Reconciliation, had another theory: “The idea that Fidel Castro . . . is opposed to reform can serve as a cover story for his brother and others to justify inaction, immobilization and paralysis.
“While the comandante is in charge and can see and hear what is around him, nothing is going to happen.”
Sanchez said he believes the majority of the mid and lower-level bureaucrats are eager for reform, but they have always been stymied by Fidel and a close circle of followers.
To be sure, Raul’s nine months on the job have not been without power. But while many Cuba-watchers expected him to embrace economic reforms, he has instead cracked down on illegal businesses and off-the-books work. A law that went into effect last month requires people to show up to their jobs on time _ and work.
“I would say Fidel has not stopped any reforms, because there have been no reforms,” Eloy Gutierrez Menoyo, a former Cuban exile who returned to Cuba to fight the government from the inside, said by phone from Havana.
“If he could act without the guidance of Fidel, Raul could perhaps offer some light reforms. It’s not that Raul is interested in reforms. It’s that Cuba requires change. I don’t perceive reforms of any kind. On the contrary, he is demanding more of the worker.”
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