No Deal Done but Bookies Rarely Wrong ; the 2007 Election
By IRISH SUNDAY MIRROR ELECTION TEAM: NIALL DONALD, DEIRDRE O’DONOVAN, GERALDINE COMISKEY; STEPHEN MAGUIRE
THE GREEN Party emerged as the king-makers yesterday who will put Bertie Ahern back in for a historic third term as Taoiseach.
The deal will not be done today – but FF chiefs hope to reach an agreement before next weekend.
Experts predict the Greens, now favourites to enter government, will demand a high price from business-friendly Fianna Fail for their support.
A source said: “Bertie will have to agree to BAN all corporate donations and SLASH CO2 emissions.
“They will also demand all Ministers dump their gas-guzzling state cars.”
Despite the cost to Bertie, the FF/Green coalition remained odds on favourite at 11-10 with bookie Paddy Power.
The source added: “The likelihood of a pact with the PDs appears a beaten docket with bookies unwilling to offer odds better than 5- 4. And it looks even more unlikely there will be a Labour of love with Pat Rabbitte’s party who had joined Fine Gael in the hustings.”
Sinn Fein, meanwhile, seem to have been left in the stalls after their poll blow-out.
Last night, a senior FF source said: “Most of our TDs would prefer to do a deal with the Labour Party. There are still a lot of people who think the Greens are a bunch of sandal-wearing hippies who have no proper economic policies.
“But you have to play with the cards you are dealt, we are delighted to be in a position to form a Government.”
The parties will sit down at a secret location next week to try and thrash out a deal. The Greens will demand the environment portfolio as well as a big say in transport and energy policy.
Fianna Fail could still offer the two PDs a place in the coalition to help secure a good working majority.
FF, the Greens and the PDs would give them 86 seats together – a majority of six.
Last night, Green Party leader Trevor Sargent warned Fianna Fail not to take his party’s support for granted.
He said: “To get your policies implemented, as Green parties have done across Europe, we will be looking to be in Government. We haven’t been closing the door on any party.
“We will be focusing on the areas that need to be implemented in terms of policy. If it is the right outcome to the negotiations then we can have an impact in Government.”
Fianna Fail won 78 seats in the election – five seats short of an overall majority.
The party can also count on the support of two independent TDs – Jackie-Healey Rae and Beverly Cooper-Flynn. Yesterday, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern said he wanted to find a stable partner for Government.
He added: “The main thing for me is stability, we want to keep on developing the economy – to move it forwards, not backwards.
“There are options – I’ll have to consult with my own senior colleagues.”
The Greens will demand a 25 per cent cut in carbon emissions as well as an end to all corporate donations to parties. Before the election, a Fianna Fail/Labour coalition was the bookie’s favourite option.
But Labour boss Pat Rabbitte now believes his party will be punished by their voters if they do a deal with Fianna Fail.
He said: “I want an opportunity to talk to my party colleagues, the votes may be there to elect an alternative government.”
Yesterday, some senior Fianna Fail figures were hinting they would prefer to do a deal with Labour. Finance Minister Brian Cowen blasted the Greens for claiming they were going to clean up politics. He said: “I don’t need anybody to clean me up. Any negotiations have to be carried out with an air of mutual respect.”
Education Minister Mary Hanafin said she hoped any new Government would include the PDs. She added: “I know everyone in Fianna Fail has a high regard for Mary Harney and the way we have worked together in Government.
“But obviously, you have to ensure whatever group you put together would be able to continue to work together for the next five years.”
Green Party TD Eamonn Ryan said: “There are three different things that are our deal makers – We want to tackle climate change and that means big changes in the transport area and the energy area.
“We also want a major new investment in education and a reform and clean-up of local government.”
THE ODDS FELLOW THE ODDS FELLOW
TAOISEACH Bertie Ahern was on track to win a third successive term in office but needs a new ally to secure a parliamentary majority.
Here are some possible outcomes in order of likelihood based on the odds offered early yesterday by bookmaker Paddy Power:
FIANNA FAIL/GREEN PARTY (11-10)
Green Party leader Trevor Sargent has not allied himself to any party but with a ‘rainbow’ coalition of opposition parties set to fall short of a parliamentary majority, the Greens could give Ahern the stable government he wants. They are likely to demand policy concessions in return.
FIANNA FAIL/PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS (5-4)
Ahern’s current junior coalition partner, the pro-business PDs, have suffered a meltdown.. Ahern favours working with them but may need further support, perhaps from independents.
FIANNA FAIL/LABOUR PARTY (7-2)
Labour leader Pat Rabbitte had repeatedly rejected the idea of entering a coalition with Ahern’s party but has refused to rule it out in recent days, saying simply that he would rather not help Fianna Fail into government if he can avoid it.
FIANNA FAIL (9-2)
A long-shot until recently. Some believe Ahern’s party could win enough seats to go it alone, probably as a minority government with support from a few independents. No party has won an outright majority in Ireland for 30 years and it is 20 years since a single party ruled without a formal coalition.
FIANNA FAIL/PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS/GREEN PARTY (6-1)
Once considered something of a long shot, given heated exchanges between Progressive Democrats and Greens, but the odds have shortened following Fianna Fail’s strong showing and big losses for the PDs.
FINE GAEL/LABOUR PARTY/GREEN PARTY (NO ODDS)
Yesterday, Paddy Power stopped offering bets on what had been considered the mostly likely combination able to oust Ahern’s Fianna Fail party.
(c) 2007 Sunday Mirror; London. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.